nm1208: er so first thing i'll say is that er from er beginning of next week Monday er these er lectures will be moving into brand spanking new sort of flashy lecture theatre er in the new agriculture building and er this is er where it is so er approach the front entry in meteorology sort of right down there er go outsi-, go round outside left side of meteorology to meet in reach the entrance to the new ag-, agriculture building lectures theatres one and two are on a lower ground floor use stairs or the lift and there will be no access to the new building from the old agriculture right does that make sense to everybody cool right er what i'm going to talk about today is expertise and er the first thing we need to do before we embark on an investigation of any sort of area is to define what we're talking about so that we know that we're actually talking about the same sort of thing so what constitutes an expert right here's er one example from New Forest Post ninth of March nineteen-ninety- five er front page article driving death off the road young drivers at a Forest School have been undergoing psychological tests that can help slash the death toll on Britain's roads an expert from namex University has been putting forty-five Brockenhurst College students through hazard perception tests this week a hazard perception test could well be part of the driving test in two years time said Dr namex in nineteen-ninety-five [laughter] never mind er [laughter] so in this case this journalist from New Forest Post has labelled me an expert because somehow i managed to convince him that i knew marginally more about the subject area than he did however what does it say in the dictionary okay it's a bog standard er Oxford Dictionary er an expert means being practised skilful and well informed and obviously the sort of problem with this definition is how exactly practised skilful and well informed do you actually have to be before we start calling you an expert and er one area where the definition of expertise is vital is within the justice system so er expertise can actually be officially er conferred by a judge for the purpose of court room testimony and in fact f-, quite a few of my colleagues have been called up to court to give evidence as psychologists on various sort of different aspects particularly driving dri-, driver fatigue and various things to do with driving er and in this case the er definition of expertise is usually one on training this is er an official one this is actually in your handout okay so er for the purposes of justice the courts describe an expert as one who's qualified by training or experience to form a definitive opinion in areas of science arts or department of trade in which laypersons are not prepared to reach accurate conclusions but the problem with this sort of definition is that there is evidence that training and experience are poor criterion for judging the quality of an expert something we'll explore er later so er moving on to more psychological like definitions expertise has been seen as the amount and complexity of knowledge gained through experience in a domain okay by the way this er these er definitions are in your handout so i think they are yeah they should be in your handout so don't need to scribble them down that's all right okay this is good old Eysenck and Keane our course textbook and er they stated that expertise means being good at specific problems within a specific domain in a lot of domains expertise is defined by peer review for example with driving top er police officers er top police drivers are often put forward as the model of driving so they can perform a range of skills which have been defined by other police drivers as being important to good driving like er skid control hazard perception vehicle control et cetera and most of the time this may be entirely sensible so you can assume that they must know something about what they're doing however police drivers have got a job to do and that job involves driving as fast as possible from A to B and with some advanced driving courses er which are usually run by police drivers er one problem with this is that people are often taught to drive like policemen and while this includes skills which have been shown to be beneficial to reducing accident involvement like hazard perception it can also legitimize practices which are inappropriate for people who aren't driving police cars so things like driving fast or making progress i'm very bitter about that 'cause i recently failed my motorbike test for failing to make progress by driving too slow round roundabouts [laughter] and er here's another definition put forward by some psychologists er Ericsson and Lehmann nineteen-ninety-six argued that er expertise expert performance involves an individual being able to produce a consistent performance on demand over a range of tasks that are representative of of a domain that is expert perf-, er expert performers are those individuals who can reliably reproduce their skill their superior skill whenever you ask them to Ericsson and Lehmann argued that though this is quite a narrow definition the advantage of this sort of definition is that at last we have an opportunity for measuring expertise okay what we're doing here is operationalizing expertise so by by definition that means we can start measuring it in laboratory experiments the problem with all the previous definitions is because they're so nicely woolly and vague it's very hard to actually sit down and measure what we mean er by narrowing down the definition like this we can actually start measuring it which means we can start doing some science on it but as you can imagine evaluating performance is a real problem for this field for example what's a laboratory test for whether someone is an expert art critic so we could do something like develop a test of their knowledge of history of art but would that be a fair test of whether they were a good critic or not so there's great difficulty in operi-, operisati-, er operationalizing expertise in many domains so and actually measuring expertise quantitatively and what we find with our police drivers' peer review is often the only measure of success and er Goodyear in nineteen-ninety-seven brought up this point with respect to professional psychologists so with professional counselling psychologists for example how can we actually measure the quality of their work you know is it the number of people they successfully treat in the year in a year or something like that and with academic psychologists like me is it the number of papers published the number of research contracts i've won not the quality of the papers published okay and these are all things that you know are actually used to evaluate us in ra-, real life but you know are they fair measures okay i mean and you can see there's potential problems for that so for example er er we've we get although we get judged for teaching on a sort of department wide basis the teaching quality isn't actually formally assessed on a person by person basis okay apart from we get informal bits of feedback from the sort of sheets you fill in but er the actual formal assessment takes place on a department wide proc-, er process so at the moment er i actually have no personal s-, incentive for my career to sort of bother to sort of do any good teaching my all my incentive is based on research because that's what i personally get judged on not the teaching okay so there are problems in judging expertise in this sort of way so into the science how have people tried to get around these sort of problems well first thing they did was to choose a an appropriate domain and they chose a domain where expertise is well defined easy to operationalize and measurable and that domain was chess okay so now chess was the er original domain for studying expert performance and the nice thing about chess is that there are clear criterion distinguishing novices from experts basically experts will beat novices and it's also a very well defined game set within a very rigid framework of rules and this makes it really nice for experimental work on the face of it it should be straightforward okay there's no er chance involved there's no do-, dice rolling or anything that that and there are a finite in theory finite set of moves that can be made at any one time but it's the sheer number of these possible moves which is overwhelming so just three moves into a chess game gives you more than nine-million distinct board positions and er on the face of it this should be an ideal task for a computer however attempts to design computers that can match the best chess players hasn't proved to be easy so what er computer chess brai-, er programs tend to do is search all available options for example a a recent one developed by I-B-M and known as Deep Blue considered about ninety- billion moves per turn at a rate of about nine billion per second okay and this is a computer that i think it eventually managed to beat Gary Kasparov but it was a close run thing but the point is that people can't do that our brains literally can't think at anywhere near that sort of speed so how come the best chess players human chess players still manage to beat computers most of the time well what are the best chess players doing that the computers and the novice chess players aren't doing originally it was assumed that chess experts were better as a result of superior intellectual capacity however it's er since been shown that expert chess players aren't actually any cleverer than anyone else or cleverer than a matched control group i should say so study found that their I-Qs are no higher than matched controls so if their mental capacity doesn't appear to be any higher than normal then presumably it must be their strategies which are superior so how has a chess performance been measured er lot of the original work which was carried out by de Groot and er what he did was get er two groups of chess players the first group were what he called experts and they were top local club players that's his definition of expert and he compared with an with an even better group the grand masters so grand masters are world class chess players so his comparison is between one really high level of expertise and a still a pretty high level of expertise and what he wanted to find out what is the difference between these two groups and what he did was er measure it measure er their performance and what they're thinking about with er verbal protocols and what verbal protocols are is simply getting people to talk aloud when they're doing the task and then transcribing what they're saying and trying to analyse it okay so he analysed their performance by getting them to talk aloud and he also timed their responses and er he presented them with a game position and asked them to think aloud while deciding what move to make and he found that people were only considering about thirty alternative moves searching at most to a depth of six moves and frequently less okay and there's a nice summary of all this sort of stuff in Eysenck and Keane so the grand masters didn't consider more moves and they didn't search more deeply than the experts but they were neverlethe-, nevertheless slightly faster at getting to the right move and they also came to their chosen move earlier in their search through possible alternatives and er that was supported by the finding that the quality of the chess moves that these people were making remained high even when you forcibly reduced their search time okay so the the best players er still searching similar number of options but they're coming to the right option earlier in their search and in a- , in addition they found that the grand masters er actually came up with better moves which was assessed by independent raters and what er de Groot argued here is that the chess master doesn't generate moves by a simple search through possible alternatives which is exactly what our chess computers are doing to generate all possible altern-, alternatives and then go through them one by one instead our grand masters are using cued recall from memory okay so as i said the depth of search how many moves people are thinking ahead er increases up the level of our experts but it doesn't actually increase when people move on to be grand masters and de Groot suggests that the difference between these experts and these grand masters is that the grand masters have a superior knowledge of different board positions and what the best move from each position would be okay so the idea is that the expert can recognize the position and knows a good move from there and that means you don't have to think about all of the irrelevant moves which you know in advance are a load of rubbish because you've already you can recognize this pattern from your memory so you don't have to do what the computer is doing and go though all of the irrelevant s-, er possible moves as well and ma-, that makes it much more efficient and it means that you don't have to do do this er ninety-billion option search every time you make a move and er de Groot's colleagues found further evidence to support this in an experiment that involved chess master and expert players' recall of board positions they found that if the position was from an actual game than the grand masters were significantly better at remembering the position but if the position was random so you just pick your chess pieces whack them anywhere on the board nothing to do with the game then you found no difference between er the two exp- , expert groups no difference between the experts and the grand masters okay so y-, grand masters only get their advantage if they're trying to memorize an actual board position and they argued that tha-, this is because the grand masters simply knew more game positions so according to move on to Chase and Simon who followed up this work what differentiates expert chess players from novice chess players is that experts have stored and organized in memory many tens of thousands of different game positions and the idea is when they saw sensible game positions they could use the knowledge they had in memory to help them remember the various positions as integrated organized chunks of information and this is the sort of thing that Chase and Simon nineteen-seventy-three were looking at okay if you remember back to er about this time last year er and my first year practical on memory chunking you'll remember that you could remember the same stimuli better when they were sort of chunked into groups that linked in with your own personal knowledge basis so remember i presented you with a list of sort of letters when i arranged them in one group in in certain groups they made no sense and so you're trying to remember each individual letter when i arranged them in other groups they actually formed er acronyms sort of common acronyms er so that instead of having to remember every single letter you could just remember the fewer number of acronyms okay so this is all Miller's stuff on there being room for seven plus-or-minus two items in short term memory but the size of what one of those items is depends on your personal knowle-, knowledge and Chase an-, ar-, Simon argued that chess players are chunking the board and the more expert you get at chess the bigger more complex your chunks become and er chess experts were found to be able to memorize board positions by breaking them down into seven or so familiar patterns or units and the difference between the novice and expert lay in the amount of information they could hold in one chunk so in er one experiment they did people had two chess boards in front of them on the first board was an arrangement of pieces and the second board was blank and what participants had to do was recreate the position they saw on the first board with the pos-, er sorry say that again what participants had to do was recreate the position they could see on the first board on the second board and what they measured was the number of glances that these people had between the two boards and how much they remembered in each of these glances okay so they argued that each glance between these two boards could be viewed as a chunk and better players could rem-, r-, recognize a chunk faster and their chunks were also bigger and er work published in nineteen-ninety-six by Gobel and Simon confirms this and er they demonstrated that retrieval processes involving recognition of board arrangements are actually instrumental in grand master level chess players' success compared with er less experienced other players okay so even when the grand masters were time constrained so they couldn't engage their looking ahead processes their performance isn't much affected okay and they argued this time that this suggests that an organized knowledge system is relatively more important to experts' performance than even the processes involved in predicting future moves okay so the key thing is organization of information er organization of knowledge having said that er Holding and Reynolds did experiment in nineteen- eighty-two er they reran de Groot's experiment using a random board position okay so again chess board and you just whack on the pieces at random nothing to do with the game and by comparing chess players of different levels on the move they would make from the random position they found that the experts produced better moves on even from these totally random board positions okay so the idea is here is that er the experts couldn't possibly have the board position previously analysed because it was a totally random board position er but they inst-, still generated better moves on from those random board positions so they argued that er we shouldn't be so one-sided about this and there is a important element of chess expertise that does involve evaluating board position as well as remembering it okay right so half an hour in so er kind of thought er s-, skill and learning things this is when your attention should be sort of plummeting downhill so i shall attempt to raise it again by doing a quick demonstration of one of these experiments if i get you to stick your hand up if you've ever been in a chess club [laughter] can i get y-, stick your hand up if you've ever played chess before [laughter] bollocks [laughter] right okay could you put your hand up if you think you're intermediate chess player y-, sort of okayish it's getting tricky i'm going to have to pick at random i think okay put your hand up if you've never ever played chess before right out of those people who couldn't even name the pieces on a chess board brilliant er cou-, could i can i get you to come out right okay and out of the rest of you i need to find someone who er okay who who's been playing since they were er a child who has played as chess as a child and has played recently as well can you stick your hand up [laughter] who's played chess within the last four years [laughter] ah brilliant namex sf1210: oh no nm1208: it's all right [laughter] this is undermining okay what i can i get you to stand over there and look in that direction okay right sf1210: look in which direction nm1208: s-, o-, over there just just don't don't look over here okay [laughter] and what i'm going to show you i've er what i've designed here is er my acme patent overhead chess set [laughter] carefully constructed there okay and basically what i'm going to do is er i've got a chess board position from a famous game for namex versus namex played this Tuesday [laughter] and er if you come and stand here er i'm going to show that for thirty seconds nm1208: oh God nm1208: and then i'm going to cover it up and then i want you to recreate that position on that board as f-, as er fast as you can and you've got about two minutes or just tell me y-, when you give up okay [laughter] right and we'll s-, see okay so you remember in the original experiment this was actually a comparison between er expert club players and a grand master so we're actually looking at very different levels of expertise but we can see whether we can sort of replicate the same sort of effect so are you ready and here goes for those of you can't see this board position this is probably a very boring part of the lecture [laughter] [laughter] okay t-, ten seconds twenty seconds thirty seconds okay off you go okay and of course we have the additional problem here is that er these pieces are really fiddly to move around okay and what we're going to try and do here is er score this by just counting the number of pieces that she gets in the right place okay if you wanted to do this scientifically of course then er i'd actually sf1209: guessed the rest nm1208: you're guessing the rest okay that's right er i don't think you did too badly there okay er right looking my original piece you've got all the one two three four five six seven eight nine you get nine points brilliant thanks very much indeed [laughter] that's it [laughter] right okay i'll just er quickly scramble this er all right okay right er and could i have my er chess grand master [laughter] sf1210: nm1208: okay right do you want to stand here and first i'm going to show you this er real chess board position for thirty seconds then i want you to er going to cover it up and then you've got about two minutes to reproduce as much as you can remember okay sf1210: what on this nm1208: er yeah well on er yeah that's right yeah okay you're ready sf1210: sorry nm1208: [laugh] and go [laughter] er er okay that's ten seconds okay twenty- seven seconds three two one go okay right get you to reproduce it okay so according to de Groot someone who has a basic knowledge of chess er should be able to er remember slightly more positions if you noticed with the on the on the actual sort of stimuli that the de Groot was using er a-, actually no sorry this is ch-, er Chase and Simon this is er obviously because they're using much more higher level of chess players er the actual chess boards were like much further into the game which is wh-, i deliberately chose one where we-, we're only we're only about sort of think ten moves into the game there or something like that so a lot of the pieces are in their original positions but er [laughter] sf1210: i've mixed the colours up does it matter nm1208: no [laughter] okay in the scientist's conditions then we would care about the colours [laughter] and er okay and er also if this is is this is proper science of course i'll be testing like fifty people in each group and er and also er control for manual dexterity in moving bits of tiny acetate around [laughter] sf1212: probably better than you did it nm1208: okay that's cool thanks very much indeed right so right er we have one two [laugh] no [laughter] three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve twelve er twelve ha [laughter] hurray [laughter] i don't know whether that means it's stati-, statistically significant thanks thank you very much you two brilliant er okay i'm not but i'm not going to pretend that's science in action there [laughter] okay right so there we have chess nicely defined domain but the problem is how do we know that other more complicated and sort of every day domains er actually involving the same sort of processes in the real world problems are seldom as well defined as they are in chess so what research is there looking at expertise in domains with less rigid rules and in the literature areas commonly study studied involve things like chess medicine and computing so many of the features that characterize the expert chess players also seem to characterize experts in other domains for example the idea of information chunking was found to be important in the domain of computer programming computer programming it's been suggested that expert programmers have large chunks of code in memory that they can rearrange in order to solve a problem so the idea is that expert programmers can remember more code than novices and as Chase and Simon then showed with chess they can fit more information into one sort of memory chunk of code if you like okay as i said er well that was research by Adelson in nineteen-eighty-one one way of er analysing difference between experts and novices as i said previously is to get people to talk about what they're thinking of when their solv-, when they solve a problem and these are verbal protocols and er people have done this looking at these sort of domains and they've compared they've transcribed the commentaries and compared the statements people are making er between the expert and novice groups and they've also compared the length of time people have spent on various aspects of the problems and also the relationship between these sort of strategies used and the solutions reached and it is using that sort of methods that er Glaser and Chi nineteen-eighty-eight found that er one difference between experts and novices is their different schemas for er solving problems within their own domain of expertise okay this bit of er overhead is actually on the handout so you don't need to scribble it down okay and so our schema what i mean by a schema is a sort of a plan an outline a structure framework a program okay so in this sort of context think of a schema as a sort of cognitive mental plan sort of guide for action okay especially in this case some sort of organized framework for solving problems and the schemas of experts have been argued to involve large highly intercon-, interrelated units of knowledge which are organized according to underlying structural similarities amongst these knowledge units okay so our experts large highly interconnected units of knowledge and connected together er by underlying structural similarities a contrast to that is the novices er the idea is that the sort of schemas that novices use in a domain are relatively small disconnected bits of information which are organized according to superficial similarities not structural similarities and er Glaser and Chi this is er fun-, er th-, this bit here is actually from er Steinberg nineteen-ninety-ni wo-, nine which i'll put in the er reprint collection er this is the difference between novices and experts and schemas it can be noted in how they classify different various problems er the idea's that experts and novices also describe the essential nature of various problems differently and determine how to solve various problems differently okay so three key expert novice differences and another thing that er researchers have found is that experts tend to spend much more time determining how to represent a problem than novices that's research by Lesgold et al nineteen-eighty-eight okay so experts spend more time representing the problem but they spent less time implementing that solu-, the solution or the strategy for th-, the solution and in contrast novices tend to dive into a problem without so much of this er initial analysis and hence spent much more time trying to figure out solution to the problem so differences between experts and novices in these sort of domains in their expenditure of time could be viewed in terms of the focus and the direction of their problem solving experts spend more time figuring out what they already know about the problem and how the information given in a problem maps on to what they already know and the idea is once the expert finds a previously existing strategy for solving the problem they can just put it down out of memory and implement it without too much bother okay and another way to describe that is that experts are working forward from the given information to find their unknown information okay okay so they're going from what do i know to what do i need to find out implementing the correct sequence of steps based on strategies they've retrieved from their schemas in long term memory okay in contrast to this the novices tend to work backwards so what they tend to do is generate a set of alternative solutions to start with and then trying to work out which one would be the best one to proceed with okay so little time is spent trying to represent the problem initially and er to illustrate this difference between forward processing and backwards processing here is an example that's in Steinberg imagine that we have an expert doctor and a totally green er novice n-, medical student and they're both presented with a patient who has a series of symptoms first of all what does the novice do well he's not sure exactly what to make of the symptoms and so what he does is goes and orders a whole long series of expensive er medical tests to be done in the hope that once he's got the full information in front of him full symptomatic information he may be able to then go ahead and make his diagnosis and he realizes that this illness could be any number of a wide range of things and he works backwards to try and sort eliminate them and work out exactly which one it is our more experienced doctor on the other hand is far more likely to recognize the initial set of symptoms he's being presented with as being as fitting a diagnostic pattern or one of a small number of patterns that she holds in her long term memory she's therefore worked forward from these initial symptoms to a much smaller set of possible illnesses and therefore she only needs a very small number of highly targeted tests to choose the correct diagnosis from among the limited number of possibilities that she's generated okay er okay a word of warning with that though is that obviously that's a that's a simple way of describing it and as you can imagine in real life get's much more fiddly than that okay those are sort of very sort of gross it's a very gross generalization on how people operate 'cause obviously as i described at the beginning it depends on how you define your expert and how you define your novice okay and er another thing to bear in mind is what a w-, first of all well wh-, d-, w-, how do we define our expertise and also how people in the study have chosen to measure that expertise and this actually makes the whole area of expertise quite tricky and when you're actually looking at research in this area you should bear that sort of thing in mind okay because despite the example i've just given you er what you actually find with doctors is that for most cases you don't actually get that much difference between novice and expert doctors so it's been found that diagnostic performance doesn't actually seem to improve much beyond the first year of residency for typical diagnostic cases okay and er there are some small differences between doctors with different lengths of experience for everyday agn-, diagnosis er though it has been shown there are tend to be much bigger differences as soon as you start moving on to more difficult cases okay and Boshuizen and Schmidt nineteen-ninety-two found that the expert doctors seem to have easier access to higher level structured diagnostic information whereas the medical students tended to have to go through this sort of cumbersome biomedical reasoning to get to their solutions okay but say we've got to be very careful that we don't overgeneralize here because it matters what we're actually calling a novice doctor here and what we're calling an expert doctor and how we're measuring their expertise another example of a skilled domain where the problem may not be as well defined as we would like is physics and er it's covered by a lot of research by Chi et al and they tested er expert and novice physicists on a range of physics problems and they found that the novices tend to use the surface features of the problem while the experts er encode far more deeply er in this domain experts solved problems four times faster than novices though they spent longer analysing the problems and Chi et al argued that these differences between novices and experts were as a result of differences in strategy and er knowledge so like with the chess the experts who use their superior knowledge of previous problems er but er is found that the experts not only had a greater quantity of knowledge they also organized that knowledge better and er experts also tend to exhibit superior memory on unexpected recall tasks possibly as a result of their deeper encoding of the problem okay and more research by Larkin et al where they took people with equivalent knowledge in solving physics problems but who differed on their level differed on their level of expertise and they found that when we actually controlled for the amount of knowledge people knew the er the experts still showed a superior performance okay so it's not th-, the am-, not just the amount of knowledge it's how you structure that knowledge which is important and then they described it as pattern based retrieval from memory and like medicine er they found that experts tended to use a forward working strategy whereas the novices tended to use a backwards working strategy and also this er expertise was found to be very domain suspic-, specific so being an expert physicist doesn't make you good at anything else whatsoever okay and this may reflect the finding that i talked about earlier where basic differences like things like I-Q er have surprisingly little bearing on expert performance okay er running out of time so i'm going to pop on to some people who've tried to summarize this sort of research okay er summarizing this sort of research is a problem 'cause as i said before we have to be very careful that first of all we know what definition of expert and novice we're using secondly we've got to be very careful about exactly how we're measuring expertise and the third thing we've got to watch out is that we don't overgeneralize from our results okay so it could be that er we say ah this is a novi-, this is an expert and the expert can do this this and this but then we discover that's only true of experts er solving maths problems and it has no bearing on experts er doing chess and things like that so you've got to bear all of these sort of these those three things in mind when you're analysing this research but er Glaser and Chi again have come come up with er a list of things they argued were common between different domains of expertise and these are all things that we've met previously in the lecture okay so they argued that er experts excel mainly in their own domains experts perceive large meaningful patterns in domains experts tend to be faster at solving problems experts have superior short and long term memory experts see and represent problems in their domain at a deeper level than novices and experts spend more time analysing problems qualitatively and something we haven't talked about is experts have very strong self-monitoring skills okay and you'll see that similar pattern reflected in another example i've put in your handout er by Green and Gilhooly who tried to do the same thing and came up with five maxims okay right so we've looked at the differences between novices and experts one point we haven't addressed is how people become experts in the first place so how do you become skilful at something how can a-, someone anyone become an expert at something or does er can anyone become an expert at something or does genetics play an important role and those are the issues we'll be looking at next week i'll see you then