nf1161: er could you postpone your conversations until after the lecture please thank you er i believe someone wanted to announce something about political clubbing er are the people here or sf1162: yes sorry nf1161: yes come forward please we'll do it now because otherwise at the end everyone wants to rush out sf1162: sorry i nf1161: sorry sf1162: i could do it tomorrow 'cause it's not nf1161: sf1162: er hi everyone my name's namex er i've just set up a political society this year er and it's just a quick announcement we're having er next Monday we're having a debate on the fuel crisis er it's in Mondial it's at seventy- thirty anyone wants to come join in or just watch er then you're free to join okay nf1161: where is it sf1162: er Mondial nf1161: Mondial sf1162: Mondial nf1161: did everyone get that good turn up in large numbers now first of all apologies er my car broke down last week er i got to the petrol station and then it didn't want to start any more again so i hope that there won't be any involuntary spare times anymore i mean without warning er the the er upshot of that is that we'll do alliances today ne-, er on Thursday deterrents and arms races on next Tuesday er arms control and disarmament and on the thurs-, er on Thursday week neutrality and so everything gets pushed down a little bit but er you will have the full complement of lectures unless the weather decides again to be completely awful and horrible right collective defence and military alliances the collective defence but even more so military alliances are generally associated with realist assumptions about how international relations work these are basically as you all know but just to to recall them that armed force is the most effe-, most effective foreign policy tool because in the end if you can't coerce a potential adversary into complying with your wishes then you can alway-, if by other means like political diplomatic or economic means the er the use of armed force if you have superior armed force might actually achie-, achieve that objective this is seen to be very important by neo-realists and also realists er because they assume that the international system is a monarchic system and essentially all s-, all states rely on self-help because there is no government or no form of governance above the state level now that entails in itself this conception for states er entails several problems because what if one state arms itself or begins to arm itself more than it has done previously its neighbours may start wondering what the intent is of that state it increases its capabilities and as you know realists see military or economic capabilities as a central defining element of state power now what does it want to do with these capabilities may it want to establish a superiority in armament levels so that it can use force in any sort of conflict with its neighbours or a state somewhat further afield if its military er machinery can reach it now in order to not let this escalate as you know from a previous lecture diplomats and politicians before the Second World War and before the First World War attempted to estab-, or to maintain what was known as a balance of power so that no state could really go beyond the point of arming itself and then using its armed force in a political conflict to settle that conflict militarily however if states felt that they were left alone or they couldn't possibly come up with the military er with the economic and resources in order to build up their military they would consider aligning themselves with other states in order to compensate for one state which might be superior in its military potential so the idea of alliance building was that they should alliances should enhance national security and seen from an economic perspective by forming alliances and joining forces you might be able you I-E a state might be able to maximize the cost-benefit equation of national defence spending I-E everyone spends as much as they possibly can but because they joined forces their economies aren't going to be burdened too much by military expenditure with in which with its essentially unproductive use of capital however because there is also there was also the risk or in short term alliances there was also the risk that a state which on one in one hand wants to be allied with you but then if its fortunes change it might decide no longer to want to be allied with you and in fact might become your enemy there was a preference for short term alliances another reason to to prefer short term alliances was of course that the idea that you wanted to protect your national security and and the secrets surrounding your national security policy er was was seen as rather paramount now the the related to these reasons er alliance formation could take place because a a threat should be deterred not necessarily to go to war but because a a threat should be deterred now i'm going to talk about deterrence at much greater length on Thursday so i'm just going to go over that very quickly either deterrence of a perceived military threat I-E a state as i explained earlier er or hy-, hypothesized earlier a state which starts increasing its military capabilities or er the possibi-, beca-, well either because it justs increases its er its er capabilities but hasn't really declared an aggressive intent or because there is actually an aggressive intent by a distinct adversary now another characteristic of pre-forty-five alliances or some of them was that they would be formed for wars of aggression in that case they would also be or that those alliances would be particularly short-lived because there was a political objective which was to be achieved militarily and for that purpose the alliance would be formed once those obj-, objectives were f-, were er achieved the alliance would disintegrate the problem is that of course inh-, built into such short term alliances is a high degree of instability because at the time the alliance is formed the state which joined into the allia-, joined in the alliance might have shared objectives but what if the war doesn't go as they intended or as they have had anticipated if the war doesn't go in favour of some of the al-, allies objectives the alliance might might fall apart er finally defence if one state is under serious threat it might look round for allies to increase its national security in a short term because it can't possibly build up its military potential and produce the weapons it might need in order to defend itself or in order to re-establish the balance of power now problems of alliances are manyfold firstly for states that intend to join into an alliance it is necessary that they reconcile different expectations how do they define national security it depends on where you sit as a state where you are geographically located who your neighbours are what your s-, resources are er what your natural resources are that those those factors influence how you define national security what also defines your national security policy is what your outlook is do you want to be er just a state that exists and trades and and doesn't really have a very active international policy or foreign policy or do you want to be a state which wants to have further reach er including your neighbours or regional reach or maybe even global reach depending on what the outlook is of different alliance members that's going to define how they define their national security and therefore the utility of an alliance is likely to differ depending on how they define their national security objectives and that is also going to define as a consequence of course the defence requirements the amount of spending that that the state is prepared to put into procuring er armed forces and the kinds of capabilities the state might want to have if you take today if you compare the U-S with any European country the U-S military machinery is much much more wide-reaching much more capable much more differentiated than any of the European er militaries or armed forces are and so these different preconditions of course shape how an alliance is likely to develop a further issue in alliance formation even if its a sh-, a relatively short-lived alliance is the question of trust and reliability if you join forces with allies there are a few things which you want to avoid one is the states that are in the alliance want to avoid that some of them spend enormous amounts of military on military capability whereas others don't now those who don't spend er an equivalent proportion of their national budget on armed forces can use might use these this proportion of the budget for building up trade building up their economic infrastructure now some of the allies would then finance the military security of these allies that spend less so the question is how do you make sure within an alliance that everyone chips in evenly and that there aren't some who live at the expense of an ally this is called if that happens this is called s-, the free-rider syndrome what you also want to avoid in an alliance is the risk of entrapment entrapment means that one ally doesn't either doesn't necessarily say in advance when it approaches a future ally that there isn't a quarrel it has with another state or it develops a quarrel with another state and then drags the other alliance members into that conflict which is really only a conflict which is nationally motivated the allies may not have any interest in being involved in this conflict or they may actually see that as a huge problem because they have very good relations with that state which has a quibble with one of the allies so entrapment is another risk which alliance members have to be able to deal with the opposite of that is the risk of abandonment which is similar to defection but slightly less harsh er abandonment would happen if a state declares that it will assist in the defence of an alliance territory or interest and then doesn't come through with that commitment it abandons its allies er in their attempt of er fulfilling the al-, alliance objectives defection is if the ally leaves the alliance entirely which entails an added risk and that is that the ally which has defected might join a hostile alliance which may have formed in response to your own alliance formation which is of course also something that allies would want to avoid from a systemic perspective if alliances form in response to inbalances in the balance of power then states which are outside the alliance might feel it necessary to form alliances themselves now that might recreate the security dilemma on a higher level now very briefly the to rec-, recall what the security dilemma is security dilemma is essentially if one state starts building up its arms the neighbouring state doesn't necessarily know what it intends to do but thinks it wise to build up its own arms er oh arsenal as well its its its armed forces then both start building up their armed forces in response to each other which means they spend quite a lot of money on procuring military equipment and maybe er getting getting more er people to join the armed forces and in the end will be no safer than they were before because they both have just pushed the balance of power o-, up to a higher level with the added risk that one of the states might say well if this continues then we may in the end be outarmed by the other side but at the moment we still have a possibility we we still might have er some chance in winning a war if we do it right and they might start they might actually state A might actually attack instead of waiting what happens with with the er with balance of military power so in essence the security dilemma might lead to a much more unstable situation than where the two sides started from and if you have you can have that between states but you can also have that between alliances now in case of a crisis or a war it's of course of utmost importance for the allies to know that they can rely on each other and that each side that has joined the alliance will implement a mutual defence agreement but here of course you have again possible problems in that they don't necessarily agree on the strategic and operational parameters er one example for that would be Britain and the U-S er in the early stages of the Second World War you again run into the problem of abandonment and entrapment and the question is how how can the alliance the allies then deal with this situation in such a way that the survival of all of them is actually going to be guaranteed and the stronger member of an alliance doesn't go well this smaller state is dispensible in some way er it may it may be better for us all if we sacrifice one of the alliance members now before World War Two as i mentioned before there was a stong belief in the offence because the idea that if you launch a surprise attack at a potential enemy then you have at least in that first initial er in that initial phase the upper hand er so you would get tight alliances which because they wanted to go for a surprise attack would have very high arms procurement and launch a massive attack as quickly as possible needless to say this was of course quite an unstable way of relating to one another in the interwar period the whole the whole philosophy sort of changed the other way round at least amongst those countries that had won the seco-, the First World War in particular France and the U-S er and and the U-K because they felt it was necessary to spend more time attention and resources on their domestic policies and on the economy and military issues were well kept as low on the agenda as possible er that led to a defensive strategy especially on the part of of Britain and led of course as you all know to a s-, highly a very strong very offensive Germany which launched the Second World War ss: nf1161: excuse me [laughter] grumble grumble [laughter] okay i'll w-, wait for your signal am i standing in anyone's way ss: yes [laughter] nf1161: oh right [laughter] tell me when i can come in again ready ss: mm nf1161: mm we have a lot to do today that's why i'm rushing a bit done now after the Second World War partly if if at the end of the session you find that you have missed that fifty per cent of what i have said i'll try to make a few copies of this and then er they will be very small because there is quite a lot here but er i can hand them out some time either on Thursday or next week so you won't have missed out er where were we alliances collective defence after the Second World War in the general atmosphere of needing to stabilize the international system as i talked about now a week ago but at the same time having to sort of deal with the issue of armed aggression er in the international system as well what developed was something called collective defence now we've i've talked about collective security last time collective defence is much more focused on the military aspects of collective security er of course it has political dimensions but it is essentially a further development of alliance building now central to a system of collective defence is the mutual commitment that attack er an attack against one is seen as an attack against all but that also means that within the framework of the treaty which establishes the the collective security system there was a need to define active aggression i'll tell you later or i will show you later that NATO as the one almost prominent example of a collective defence system has has done that in the Washington Treaty now collective defence systems tend to be established with a longer term view not like alliances er of the pre-World War Two period now that means that if you have a more integrated and er a sort of longer lasting system that has ramifications of how the allies cooperate and little is as sensitive as the issues of national security when it comes to military national security 'cause all the allies of course want to keep each other out at the same time in a collective defence system there is a need to share some of what it would otherwise would be considered secret so in an organization which is meant to establish a collective defence system the way in which the institution is set up has to strike a balance between respecting the sovereignty of all the er of all the members of the collective security system and at the same time tending to the need of to the needs of this collective security system for it to work I-E a degree of openness now again of course you have the same alliance problems they they are played out in a different way er which i mentioned before the question of defection abandonment and and as well as entrapment and NATO if you look at the history of NATO has had a fair share of discussions about this you ready don't want to incur your wrath again er but overall what Britain France and the U-S saw paramount in establishing NATO was were the benefits er and these benefits were an enhanced deterrence capability not least because and this was of special interest for Britain and France er and the Benelux countries beca-, er to tie the U-S militarily into a europ-, European security system a or collective defence system A because of the experiences of World War One and Two and the failure of the balance of power system and Britain's inability to guarantee or to to be a stabilizer in the balance of power on the European continent Britain was economically and militarily after the Second World War no longer capable of of playing this role so the U-S one of the paramount policy objectives for Britain was to tie the U-S into a European collective defence system now doing this in with a long ter-, longer term perspective meant ultimately that the military processes which were separate nationally had to harmonized in some way because on a on a completely sort of practical operational level the armed forces of now sixte-, nineteen different countries but during the Cold War sixteen different countries had to work together they had to be able to talk to one another and if they don't have the radio equipment to do so then then they can't talk to one another they have to have a common language they have to have planning procedures and traces and and just operational procedures which are comparable and they need to be able needed to be able to share to a to a degree er their equipment especially equipment where the the arm-, the national armed forces tried to work together and that meant that on an on an institutional level other than alliances of the pre-World War Two kind a separate identity emerged where NATO became gradually over over decades not from the very beginning but over the over the over its history became a separate entity which had a separate language a separate way of of operation er the wa-, it had different standard operating procedures it had its own planning er procedures and these would then be handed down to the national military and political planners er which were or who were then tasked with implementing what NATO desired now there are many studies ex-, er exploring exactly that linkage between NATO level planning and national level planning because national level planning always massively undercut what NATO thought it might need another aspect which and NATO is really the reference point for collective defence systems because it's the only er long lasting example that we have for a collective defence system another aspect of it is political cooperation er confidence building on the one hand because if former enemies especially after Germany er joined NATO as well if former enemies or potentially not hostile neighbours but but neighbours who are not entirely confident or comfortable with one another if they start talking to one another on a political as well as on a military level it's because NATO has a a a political organization which is based in Brussels er ever since France left NATO in nineteen-sixty-six and it has a military organization which is er which is based in er Mons near Casteau which is about i don't know an hours drive outside Brussels er if on the political and on the military level the member nations or representatives of the member nations meet regularly there is a very different over time a very different understanding of each other emerges which again contributes to some degree of separate identity of NATO as an organization and that can then be translated down into national decision making levels as well if you talk to people within NATO they would even go so far that conflict resolution within these structures can be possible without this ever becoming an issue that really hits the headlines one problem that NATO has had all the time is this issue with free- riding er it's commonly called within na-, within the NATO er scholarly literature the burden sharing debate it emerged in the nineteen-sixties in the nineteen-seventies in the nineteen-eighties and it's going to come up again if well depending on who wins the er U-S elections today but with president if if it was to be President Bush i'm pretty sure i would hazard the guess that the issue will come up again the U-S especially the more the more conservative and the more western orientated proportion of the U-S Congress has especially since the nineteen-seventies very strongly lobbied against a permanent commitment of U-S troops in Europe because they argued that er Europe is from the seventies onwards Europe was doing economically well enough to defend itself and the U-S would still maintain its nuclear umbrella but there was no need for U-S troops to be based in Europe er and if they were to remain in Europe then the Europeans should spend a lot more on their own defence now there was a lot of number crunching that can go on er over the issue of burden sharing because it depends on how you calculated defence expenditure er if you want to make the argument that no Americans and the Europeans are contributing e-, equally i'll get back to the problem of different perceptions U-S and Europe of NATO er in a minute problems with collective defence er one i have just mentioned because there is a long term perspective there is an enhanced risk of free- riding the long term perspective also requires that the alliance itself adapts because for for many different reasons er A the alliance's rationale under which the alliance may have been founded in the first place may no longer be there if the international system changes or if the relationship between those whom the alliance was meant to deter and the alliance itself improves if it does not improve or if there is no concensus that the er the relationship has improved the question is how high should the defensive cap-, of what nature should these defensive capabilities be and how committed are the allies depending on how much they contribute to the defensive capabilities and how they stand politically when France left NATO in nineteen-sixty-six that was seen as a major crisis because it was seen as entailing ha-, have you finished oh i'm asking now [laughter] er it was seen as entailing the possibility that the Soviet Union might see NATO as falling apart other changes that might happen are changes in the domestic environment of alliance members better or worse economic performance now the external threat which NATO as on the NATO level agreed on may have required very high defence expenditure from the perspective of NATO planners but in the early nineteen- seventies neither the U-S nor Britain nor any of the other European countries were really in the position to spend an awful lot of money on defence they still did but they were under serious eeconomic pressures A because of the oil prices and the U-S because it had exhausted itself in the in the Vietnam War and had then deferred some of the costs it paid in the Vietnam War over to the Europeans through its economic policies and financial policies another possibility of change is that the alliance itself might change its role in the international system maybe some alliance members are interested or might be interested in increasing the operational area of the alliance some may not that's a debate you had in NATO in the early nineteen- eighties when the U-S and Britain to a degree argued that NATO should take on a lot more what was then called out of area responsibilities I-E that NATO should no longer just be responsible for the defence of western Europe but also take on the Soviet threat as it was perceived in other areas such as Africa the Middle East er south Asia or central Asia now all this can become rather aggravating because of course in an alliance you have in in a collective defence system such as NATO you have collective decision making now the policy formulation should in the spirit of collective decision making take place by mutual agreement but of course some states as what i've said before some states are more equal than others and if the alliance is very much dependent on some of the states or maybe one of the state states then er they this particularly state mi-, have may might have a lot more leverage in pushing through its own policy objectives er and then you risk the dom-, the the alliance risks being dominated by larger allies further problems and we've come back to the security dilemma are outside perceptions now NATO was founded with defensive intent and nobody amongst those leading figures who helped NATO into being could s-, well saw NATO as an aggressive alliance there are people on record saying well nobody who has in any way a clean conscience in other words doesn't doesn't want to er attack NATO can see NATO as an aggressive er well international organization or er or alliance however the Soviet Union saw it very differently the Soviet Union was convinced until the la-, second half of the nineteen-eighties that NATO had aggressive intent okay in the nineteen- seventies détente er saw this slightly well the the the general mood between East and West eased up a bit but there was always the fear that NATO might attack the Warsaw Pact and with the foundation of or with the founding of the of the Warsaw Pact in response to NATO you have the same you have what i've mentioned earlier that that the an instance where the formation of one alliance triggers the formation of another alliance in response the other issue i've i've already sort of hinted at as well very briefly that intra-alliance arguments may be interpreted as a lack of cohesion one of these the red lines going through NATO debating itself or scholars debating NATO during the Cold War was always if we do not portray an image of a cohesive a politically cohesive life if we show that there are so too many disagreements between the Europeans and the Americans or amongst the Europeans then NATO is going to be perceived as a weak alliance because then the Soviet Union is likely to exploit this this or and and the Soviet Union is likely to exploit this weakness that it sees in NATO cohesion finally from again a systemic perspective if a collective defence system persists the question is does this persistence maintain the status quo ante I-E before the system changed and the threat disappeared such as NATO post end of Cold War or might it need two new alliances or as NATO did might it survive find new roles and transform itself but then does that perception of NATO in its Cold War identity automatically go away very very weighty questions which we still haven't solved entirely yet now NATO as i said before combines a political and a military mission in its founding treaty so the Washington Treaty you can see all these documents on the NATO website which is just W-W-W-dot-NATO-dot-org or in the library in the in the Politics department library there is a NATO handbook which has all the basic information from a NATO perspective obviously but it's a good start into the official presentation of NATO as an organization and that includes also the Washington Treaty the declared purpose of NATO was defensive and it subjected itself to the principle principles of the U-N it was as i said before a defensive a a collective defence system which saw itself as a subsystem to the collective security system established under or with the U-N it declares that it was the the founders declared that they founded NATO to safeguard the freedom the common heritage and civilization of their peoples founded on the principles of democracy individual liberty and the rule of law now if you look at NATO from that perspective you get immediately a host of areas which you can investigate in order to critically assess the functions of NATO to ask questions well what is the purpose of this alliance how far is this alliance compatible with the way in which international relations work now has it adapted itself if it is tied to the ideas that on which liberal democracies are are based is it justified for NATO to protect Albanians in Kosovo against Serb aggression or maybe it's not but although al-, military alliances are mostly not investigated from that perspective it is rather a rewarding idea to at least question the political and the ideological underpinnings of military alliances because in the end armed force is used for political purposes now NATO also fulfilled the other requirement that it needed to defend er to define what an armed what what aggression is what is an incident of aggression now article five of the Washington Treaty does that A that an armed attack against one shall be considered er an armed attack against all but in response to such an act of aggression each of the parties in in exercise of their right to individual or collective self-defence recognized by article fifty-one of the U-N charter will assist those attacked by taking individually or in concert with the other parties such action as it deems necessary now this is an essential point such action as it deems necessary this is this is NATO founders bowing to sovereignty they do not say we predetermine how we are going to defend NATO territory or territory of an ally er against an act of aggression armed aggression they say in the event of an attack each of the NATO members can decide how much and in what way it wants them to contribute to a defensive act or to to defensive action of course in NATO planning especially in NATO planning er for a contingency in an in in well in a confrontation with the Soviet Union was based on on the assumption that all NATO members would throw in all they had in order to defend themselves but this is an issue which is now becoming much more relevant plus if it had been not the Soviet Union but someone else attacking a NATO member then the situation would have probably been rather different and they undertook the obligation to report an attack and countermeasures to the U-N Security Council they did not say we are going to ask for permission by the U-S Security Council I-E a mandate for any er action you don't have to write down these things look them up in in i mean the the er the article bits which i had sort of quoted on this on this slide don't write them down just look them up on the web or in in the handbook it's much easier and it's not so salient unless unless you are interested in looking at NATO and and investigating something pertaining to NATO questions er then you go co-, go to er the NATO handbook or or its website but you don't it's not essential nobody's going to ask you that in your exams can you quote article five of the er of the Washington Treaty er during the Cold War as i said NATO's principle objective was to deter the Soviet Union everything that NATO did was subordinate to that and of course it had to do this A through nuclear deterrents well it didn't of course have to do this did eventually have to do it when the Soviet Union acquired nuclear weapons in nineteen-forty-nine and built up a nuclear arsenal that also meant it was utterly dependent on the U-S because nuclear deterrents only worked with U-S involvement and this is where i come back to why the Europeans were so keen on having U-S military personnel based in Europe the U-S soldiers based in Europe and pilots and sailors were essentially hostages in the game of nuclear deterrents because by having U-S military personnel based in Europe that military personnel could become a target for Soviet aggression which meant from a European perspective the U-S would have extended national security interests in Europe in the shape of soldiers based on European soil which meant again from a European perspective that the likelihood that the U-S would use nuclear weapons in response to an attack a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union was much higher than if no U-S personnel had been based on the European continent burden sharing debate and this issue were often very closely linked at the same time milita-, er NATO tried to underline its defensive attitude by declaring that military action was dependent on unan-, unanimous decisions if the smallest member of NATO did not want to take action NATO wouldn't have taken action well unless this member was had er its arms twisted massively by all the other members on the issue of cohesion not only the burden sharing debate was an issue but also arms control and i'll talk about arms control er next in a week's time so just to sort of give you a pointer er the SALT negotiations in the late nineteen-sixties early nineteen- seventies from a European perspective were seen as entailing at least a risk of the Soviet Union and the U-S coming to a separate agreement which suited their national security interests but not necessarily the Europeans' national security interests which meant that they perceived the risk of being abandoned by the U-S as it turned out the U-S reiterated its commitment to European security and to NATO but in that period in the late sixties early seventies there was quite a lot of concern about the issue of abandonment now to finish very swiftly NATO in the post Cold War environment NATO didn't want to abolish itself as you all know NATO was also seen as still being a child of the Cold War and harbouring aggressive aten-, intent against Russia and the successive states of the Soviet u-, the other successive states of the Soviet Union so NATO spent the nineteen-nineties reinventing itself A as one little wheel well actually quite a dominant wheel in the European framework of institutions which were responsible or which which have remit for political economic and military security and development in Europe NATO enlargement was one major aspect of this which NATO couldn't which is it would be unjustified to see as just something that NATO pursued in order to find a new er rationale for itself those countries which had been previously Warsaw Pact members and were very keen on establishing their links with western Europe were very keen also on becoming members of NATO not least because it became clear very soon that the E-U would drag its feet a lot longer in er admitting new members whereas NATO both from a NATO perspective and from from a U-S perspective was much more prepared to contemplate letting in new members so last year Hungary Poland and the Czech Republic became new members of NATO NATO also er established itself as one organization which had a cooperative role within the European the E-U system of er designing a common foreign and security policy but of course again there you have p-, potentially huge problems of transatlantic relations the different orientations of the European the E-U members er towards the the their different attitudes towards the U-S conflicting with the European idea finally NATO became well one could say a subcontractor at least for a while to the U-N and the O-S-C it offered it it made itself available as a military tool er for U-N authorized or O-S-C-E os-, er authorized er operations this meant also that NATO does no longer only have to respond under article five it can it has inscribed in in into its new strategic doctrine the possibility of legitimate action in peace enforcement and peace keeping operations so its mission its self-imposed mission has changed to quite a significant degree that was an extremely fast rundown er betw-, from alliances of collective security to NATO i hope you remember some of it and i'll see you on Thursday for deterrence thank you