nm1359: 
this week i'm i'm going to [0.4] just basically one lecture which comes on 
from from last week's [0.7] session [0.6] er [0.5] last week we looked at 
climatic change [0.3] sort of [0.7] observation measurements [0.3] today i want 
to sort of [0.6] link in [0.7] with that the implications for crops vegetation 
and land use [0.4] and it will hopefully tie together some of the bits of the 
course that we've been [0.3] doing with this this term [0.4] er [0.2] so that 
will be one lecture [0.4] and then [0.5] there'll be a pause [0.3] and i'll 
tell you about the exam questions [0.2] er and i'm happy to deal with any 
questions over over the course as a whole [0.3] does 
that sound okay [2.4] okay so [1.0] there's the title climate change 
implications of crops vegetation and land use [1.1] er [3.2] diagram about 
climatic change in general [0.6] er and we've done part of this over the last 
few weeks [0.5] er [1.4] that basically [0.2] we talked first of all about 
emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases and and how [0.8] man's 
activities on the earth's surface [0.5] and agricultural activities land use 
changes et cetera were affecting that [0.8] er then last week we talked [0.5] a 
bit about [0.2] the effects on climatic change [0.3] the observed changes in 
temperature [0.2] sea level rise et cetera [0.4] er [1.7] so today i'm going a 
little bit across to look at the effects of impacts on on [0.4] human natural 
systems [0.5] er [0.2] we can actually have a whole module on that [1.2] no 
doubt at all very important topic [0.4] er [0.2] but i've basically [0.2] 
restricted myself really to er bits about food and agriculture and and crops [1.
0] er 
[0.7] obviously there is a circle here [0.3] and we're not going to [0.3] 
really get into how we adapt and [0.2] affect and feedback into climate i'm 
going to concentrate on the effects [0.4] of climatic change on on those [0.3] 
uses [0.5] just to summarise a bit these are the slides we had last week er [1.
0] er [1.3] the I-P-C-C [0.2] interdepartmental panel sort of prediction for 
climate change [0.5] er for the next hundred years [0.3] and [0.8] er the thing 
that we're sure [0.2] about are that C-O-two concentra concentrations are going 
to rise [0.3] er over the next hundred years [0.6] and [0.7] certainly from [0.
8] where we are at the moment about three-sixty-five parts per million [0.4] to 
a minimum of about five-hundred [0.2] and possibly up to 
eight-hundred pause /> er [1.1] so that's [0.3] going to be something that's 
going to affect plants and vegetation [0.5] completely so [0.2] C-O-two change 
is the one thing to think about [0.7] er [0.9] and then there's going to be 
changes in temperature [0.2] again with great uncertainties [0.4] er [0.7] up 
to three or four degrees depending upon gra er green house gas emissions [0.6] 
er [0.2] and a corresponding increase in sea level rise [0.6] but [0.2] really 
[0.2] for the point of view of [0.5] er [0.4] vegetation we got to concentrate 
on [0.6] C-O-two [0.2] temperature [0.2] and [0.5] the consequent effects upon 
rain fall and water 
balance [1.3] er [0.4] again this is just a recap from last week [0.3] just to 
emphasise the changes that [0.6] are likely to happen in the next hundred years 
or so [0.5] and we are talking [0.3] typically around three or four degrees 
increase in mean temperature in in our latitudes [0.7] with the position about 
rainfall [0.5] very much less clear [2.2] okay so [0.5] think now back to 
photosynth er to carbon dioxide and photosynthesis [0.6] er [1.0] and [0.4] 
obviously [0.5] as as i'm sure most of you're aware [1.7] er s [0.5] 
photosynthesis can be restricted by carbon dioxide [0.6] and if you take [0.6] 
most [0.3] crop plants like wheat pause /> which have sort of C-three [0.7] er 
metabolism for [0.2] fixing carbon in in photosynthesis [0.5] then [0.7] 
there's a relationship [0.4] between the rate of carbon dioxide fixation 
photosynthesis 
[0.2] and [0.4] the C-O-two level [0.2] but this is inside the leaf [0.5] er 
[0.3] and basically as the C-O-two level inside the leaf increases [0.3] 
photosynthesis increases [0.6] er the C-O-two level inside the leaf also links 
[0.4] with the C-O-two level outside [0.3] so basically [1.0] for C-three 
plants which are most of the crop plants of the world [0.4] an increase in [0.
2] carbon dioxide [0.6] in the atmosphere is going to give an increase rate of 
photosynthesis [0.8] er [0.2] that's not actually true for C-four plants [0.4] 
er which are mainly that as you know [0.3] tropical grasses sorghum maize [0.3] 
millet et cetera being the main crops [0.5] er 
[0.3] they have a sort of slightly strange [0.5] or different i should say 
photosynthetic mechanism [0.2] where they [0.5] er [1.2] effectively [0.2] 
accumulate [0.6] er carbon dioxide close to the sight of of photosynthesis [0.
4] er [0.3] and the external [0.9] concentration really doesn't make [0.2] very 
much difference [1.8] so [1.5] increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will 
increase photosynthesis by C-three plants but not by [0.3] by C-four plants [0.
9] [cough] [1.9] in theory anyway so individual leaves [0.5] er [0.4] if we're 
talking about [1.6] er almost a doubling of C-O-two concentration [0.2] by the 
end of the century [0.5] that will give something like a fifty per cent [0.3] 
increase in the rate of photosynthesis of individual of individual leaves [0.6] 
er [0.7] there there might be a small effect on C-four species i mean the the 
[0.7] the evidence is a bit divided [0.3] some people say there's no effect 
some people might be small effect [0.4] but it's certainly going to be less 
than ten per cent [0.8] er [0.3] so that seams good that [0.6] that's a 
positive effect of climatic change in a way that that [0.5] 
going to have increase rates of photosynthesis [0.7] which [0.4] again is a 
way of increasing the storage of carbon on the land's surface if we if we keep 
as both [0.9] er [0.2] but it's not quite as straight forward as as that [0.6] 
er [1.3] one thing that [0.4] generally will happen [0.4] is that [0.6] most 
evidence seems to be that there's going to be an increase in stomatal 
resistance [1.2] if C-O-two concentration increases plants tend to close their 
stomata a little bit [0.4] er [0.6] they don't need to have them so wide open 
for photosynthesis [0.6] er [0.9] now that's [0.9] that's good in some ways 
because it'll probably reduce transpiration [0.7] er [0.5] reduce the rate of 
water loss [0.4] so we'll get more dry matter produced per unit of water used 
[0.5] er [0.2] it's been called water use efficiency [0.7] er [0.3] we've 
mentioned before the the ration of of dry matter to to water use
[0.7] er [1.5] so that's sort of positive [0.3] er [0.3] but the stomata 
resistance may feed back and sort of cut down on this fifty per cent [0.6] 
increase so you may get less less increase than that [1.3] er [1.2] but think 
back earlier on in the course we looked at the energy balance of leaves [0.7] 
and [0.7] and of crops [0.4] and the energy got to go somewhere and if you 
reduce the transpiration [0.5] then you're probably going to have an increase 
in in leaf temperature [0.2] and er [0.2] that may feed back into local air 
temperatures [0.5] but [1.0] when the warmer leaf temperature have [1.2] a 
positive or negative effect on the leaf [0.2] photosynthesis again is not 
really clear [0.3] er it may be that there may be a negative effect of of 
warmer temperatures [0.6] er [0.7] so [1.0] basically [0.5] positive in C-three 
species but not necessarily that that clear [2.8] now when you come t [0.5] 
that really i'm talking about individual leaf you know an individual leaf 
exposed to different levels of carbon dioxide [0.7] but [0.8] when you come to 
a crop the effects are likely to be less than for a crop the individual leaf [0.
5] because not all the leaves as we talked before we looked at light not all 
the leaves are [0.8] receiving the same level of light [0.5] the old leaves at 
the bottom probably won't respond to [0.9] to C-O-two et cetera [0.4] er [0.3] 
so [0.3] most values show the [0.5] effects are less [0.7] for a crop than for 
an individual leaf [4.3] but also leaves may actually sort of acclimatize [0.5] 
to the changing in C-O-two level [0.5] er [0.5] those results i put up before 
are really sort of in experiments i think we're probably using measure 
photosynthesis [0.8] er [0.9] and it may be [0.4] that plants adapt to the to 
the rates to the levels of C-O-two and reduce their rates over time [1.0] 
there's a sort of [0.2] s 
[0.4] phrase that's used here about down-regulating that plants control their 
rate of metabolism [0.8] er [0.9] so [0.3] there's been a lot of interest 
recently in actually looking at long term studies [0.4] er [0.2] of the effects 
of C-O-two [0.5] changes [0.7] if you expose plants to different levels of C-O-
two for a long time [0.2] do they change their photosynthesis [1.0] er [1.0] 
and of course plant growth is not just [2.0] determined by carbon dioxide [0.2] 
you've got other interactions particularly with water nutrients and temperature 
[0.4] so [0.3] what i'm going to do now is tell you bit about some longer term 
studies that've been going on looking at looking at these things [1.0] er [1.2] 
i don't know have you ever come across the term FACE at all anybody not in in 
this context [0.5] er [0.7] well it stand for free air C-O-two enrichment [0.5] 
er [1.2] basically [1.2] if you think about [0.3] what how do you experiments 
about C-O-two [0.3] you could 
[0.9] do experiments in the glass house er you could increase the C-O-two 
level in the glass house and look at the response [1.0] as is done in [0.2] 
commercial tomato production for ex example [0.5] getting increased growth 
rates [0.5] er [0.4] but what what we really don't know is what's gong to 
happen to plants [0.6] in the atmosphere outside [0.6] so the idea of of these 
sort of experiments which are [0.3] quite complicated only done in a few places 
in the world [0.4] is [0.8] to actually have [0.4] experiments outside [0.3] 
where [1.0] er [0.4] C-O-two enriched air is released over vegetation and 
continuously released [0.2] so you've got plants or trees and things growing [0.
6] in [0.8] increased C-O-two levels outside in real conditions [0.7] er [1.1] 
so there's a lot of sort of engineering going on to control the carbon dioxide 
[0.5] er [0.7] levels [1.0] er and provide a stable elevated level of carbon 
dioxide [1.8] and [0.4] 
basically there should be no barrier to natural air flow so the wind et cetera 
can have its normal effect so the issue is not not affecting not affected [0.7] 
er [1.0] and [1.6] basically [0.3] these facilities have been built up mainly 
in in the states though there's been some work in the U-K [0.3] er on a on a 
slightly smaller scale [0.4] er but these ones are going to be [0.5] er [0.8] 
ones i'm going to show you in America [0.7] er [1.4] this is basically saying 
if we can't use full scale changes we need to use [0.4] er [0.4] bigger systems 
to look at [0.2] but don't change the micro climate [0.5] very much [0.7] er [0.
8] so [0.3] lets have a look this is this is a [0.4] er [1.0] called a FACE 
facility [0.4] in [0.5] er North Carolina [0.5] er [0.2] and these are [0.4] 
the the facilities and these are circles about thirty metres [0.6] 
wide [0.5] er [0.5] and these are just vertical pipes around here which [0.2] 
let C-O-two in [0.6] across the vegetation inside there [0.6] er now obviously 
you've got to have different treatments and things so it all gets a bit 
complicated [0.4] er [0.7] building up [0.4] er those sort of facilities [0.3] 
er so they're quite a major investment [0.7] er [0.4] but these have been going 
[0.7] in the states for [0.2] er [0.2] since the sort of mid-nineteen-sev er 
mid-nineteen-nineties [0.3] and built up some some useful results [1.1] er [2.
4] so [0.6] er [0.5] th these are some results fr from that particular one 
looking at er [0.8] er [1.0] it's pine forest [0.3] er [0.7] in in U-S-A [0.5] 
and [1.1] you've got a control plot [0.5] where [0.3] the [0.2] normal [0.4] 
ambient C-O-two level [0.2] three-sixty-five parts per million roughly [0.5] 
er [0.2] and they [0.3] increased that by two-hundred so the [0.2] the 
treatment there is is two-hundred parts per million [1.0] i'm sorry two-hundred 
parts per million extra [0.3] five-sixty five-sixty-five parts per million [0.
6] er [0.2] so that's [0.3] experiment [0.3] er [0.8] is still running but 
they've only actually got the results up until two-thousand sort of published 
so far [0.4] and [1.0] do you remember back in [0.2] one of the earlier works 
we talked about net primary production N-P-P [0.8] how much production as a 
forest or something will produce [0.6] over a year [0.6] so [0.2] this is what 
these figures are grammes per metre squared per year [0.8] er [0.7] and [0.5] 
basically there's variation from year to year er [0.3] natural other factors 
water rainfall [0.7] solar radiation temperature et cetera [0.5] but as you can 
see [0.2] in each year 
so far [0.6] er [2.1] the the trees receiving the higher level of C-O-two have 
produced [0.2] more more [0.4] biomass [0.4] er [0.4] somewhere between twenty 
and thirty per cent [1.1] er [0.4] more increase [0.6] er [0.7] and then this 
supports the fact that [0.8] over time [0.5] as the C-O-two concentration in 
the atmosphere has gone up historically [0.3] then [0.9] certainly suggests 
that this [0.5] this type of forest will have been accumulating [0.4] biomass 
at a at a bigger rate [0.5] we talked about [0.3] over the last [0.7] twenty 
years how we think that the net the earth's surface the the vegetation of the 
earth's surface has been a net 
[0.8] sink for C-O-two taking up C-O-two so this is part of the story [1.2] 
plants responding to to C-O-two concentration [1.8] does that seem okay at the 
moment is that [1.7] er [0.9] okay we'll go a bit further on those results then 
[0.3] er [2.0] so [0.3] you [0.3] so far there's been an increase in dry matter 
in a fraction over four years [0.5] er [0.7] but the sort of papers and that 
suggest that [1.6] this may well c carry on [0.4] but [0.4] may not be 
sustained if nitrogen [0.5] becomes limited obviously [0.5] nitrogen is 
involved in in growth processes [0.5] and [1.1] can't necessarily [0.2] er [1.
5] sustain increased rates of C-O-two if [0.6] you don't add any more nitrogen 
[0.4] er either naturally or not now there's again [0.2] concern in [0.4] that 
we're increasing the global nitrogen cycle [0.2] so maybe [0.2] that's 
happening anyway [0.3] er [1.0] and there's need for measurements of nitrogen 
then but at the moment it does seem to be sustained and carried on [0.7] er 
[1.1] so there's [0.5] er no evidence here of of acclimatization of of plants 
down regulating the photosynthesis [1.0] er [0.3] there's also [0.5] over those 
four years no matter no difference in dry matter partitioning [1.1] the 
increased dry matter's going to leaves [0.3] roots [1.0] trunks et cetera in 
the same proportions as it was before [0.6] er [1.5] so you're just getting 
bigger trees but they're in the same proportions [0.9] er [1.7] there's also s 
no difference in stomatal resistance or or water use they've also measured 
those [0.2] things there [0.3] so basically these trees are producing more dry 
matter [0.5] er for the same amount of water so they've got a greater water use 
efficiency [0.9] er [1.2] so [0.2] this seems a fairly straightforward [0.3] 
response it's [0.7] it's behaving almost in expects [0.2] as you'd expect it to 
[0.2] er [0.4] for simple rates of photosynthesis [4.0] er [4.2] a again in 
these experiments they measure all sorts of things [0.4] and [1.0] if you 
remember back er in about week five [0.3] we er said that one way of analysing
crop growth [0.7] was to think about [0.2] the dry matter produced grammes per 
meter squared [0.8] in this case per year [0.5] er [0.7] as being made up of 
two things the absorbed [1.0] radiation the the [0.6] crop [0.2] or the trees 
in this case captured in the sun [0.5] er [0.2] and [0.7] the er [1.1] thing 
called the radiation sufficiency [0.2] which [0.2] was basically [0.2] how you 
turn the absorbed radiation in in into into dry matter [0.8] er [0.6] how many 
grammes of dry matter you get per mega joule of radiation absorbed [0.2] er [1.
1] what these a are [0.2] data from [0.8] from th [0.5] those trees [0.2] er [1.
8] and [0.5] essentially this bottom one is er three-sixty-five parts per 
million the normal [0.2] environm the normal environment [0.6] er [0.3] and the 
five-sixty-five one here [0.3] and you can see that [0.3] over time there's 
really been no difference in the amount of radiation intercepted [0.2] that's 
still [1.1] still constant [0.6] er 
[1.0] they're trees that've got a reasonable leaf area they they've got a 
leave area in about three to four [0.2] so they're capturing a reasonable 
amount of light [0.6] er [0.4] and there's no difference here the difference is 
in [0.2] the radiation sufficiency [0.5] er which is what you'd expect really 
that's the [1.8] that's the photosynthetic processes the conversion of radi er 
radiant energy into dry matter [0.4] er that's been increased by by 
photosynthesis [0.7] er [0.2] so that's one example of of how the radiation we 
used to understand the experiment [2.2] is that [0.4] okay so far [2.7] okay er 
so that's [0.8] one bit [0.4] er [1.3] another [1.0] FACE facility is in the 
University of Arizona [0.5] er [0.3] where they did experiments on wheat [0.6] 
er [0.4] so again [0.5] these circles with C-O-two enrichment [0.5] er [0.3] 
coming in across the [0.6] the individual plots in there [0.5] er [0.6] again a 
reasonable distance between the plots [0.2] so avoids cross contamination and 
things like that [0.4] er [1.5] what do they [0.4] show for wheat [0.7] well [0.
7] that's a bit 
more complicated really [0.5] er [1.0] they had er used a fifty per cent 
increase in carbon dioxide [0.4] so you have [0.5] plants at normal er [0.6] 
atmospheric carbon dioxide and ones with fifty per cent increase [0.8] er [1.1] 
and [0.4] there was a strong interaction between [0.3] carbon dioxide and water 
use [1.0] er [2.2] the water use was reduced [0.4] by about six per cent [2.0] 
from well watered crops so there was there was some [0.7] reduction in in 
stomatal resistance [0.7] er stomatal stomata were probably closing a little 
bit [0.8] er [1.5] but [1.5] in terms of the photosynthesis [0.4] er [1.0] when 
you had crops [0.5] with [0.3] adequate water [0.7] well watered crops [0.2] 
you got something like about a nineteen per cent increase [0.5] er [0.5] in in 
in photosynthesis [0.5] for for the canopy [0.5] er [0.5] now you might expect 
on an individual leaf something like thirty per cent [0.4] but it [0.2] as i 
said earlier it's probably less for an individual [0.4] for a for a whole crop 
[0.6] so [2.1] wheat er C-three species getting an increase in in canopy 
photosynthesis [0.6] from C-O-two [0.6] er [0.3] but actually doing better 
[0.9] when you've got water deficiency [0.6] er [0.9] that [1.4] when the crop 
is short of water the er the [1.0] increase in C-O-two is able to compensate 
for that [0.3] and and [0.2] boost up rates of photosynthesis [0.8] er [0.6] so 
[0.2] you've got a much greater increase un under water stress [0.8] er [1.4] 
so [1.0] thus suggests that plants may [0.4] the combination of [0.7] er [0.5] 
high C-O-two an and [0.2] reduced water [0.2] might be [0.6] there might be 
some compensation there but it certainly in in wheat [0.7] er [1.2] but 
obviously when you come on to future predictions of what's happening to crops 
[0.7] what's going to happen about er [0.6] water [0.7] er [0.4] around the 
world is is very important [4.0] er [1.4] okay so that's looked at C-O-two [0.
4] er [0.7] and some interactions with water [0.5] but [1.5] in the [0.2] in 
what we think's going to be the world in the next next century [0.5] er [0.4] 
any increases in carbon dioxide are going to be [0.4] accompanied by increases 
in 
temperature [0.7] er [0.5] generally on average [0.3] er [1.1] you know we 
talked about mean temperatures increase increasing but in general there's going 
to be increase in temperature [0.4] so [0.4] we need to think about that those 
interactions [0.7] er [1.1] and [0.8] we remember we struggled a bit with 
thermal time earlier on this product of temperature and time [0.5] which really 
controls the development of crops [1.0] so [0.4] warmer temperatures mean 
quicker development [0.9] er [0.2] so [0.6] present day varieties will [0.2] 
mature quicker [0.6] and have less time for photosynthesis [0.5] er [0.3] do 
you remember we did the thing about maize and altitude in in one one of the [0.
4] lectures there [0.3] er [0.8] so [0.4] what's going to happen [0.3] er [1.9] 
er [0.8] when [0.8] when temperatures increase [0.4] er in combination with C-O-
two levels [0.6] well there've only been experiments [1.2] on wheat [0.4] there 
were some done here actually in [0.2] and at Rothamsted experimental station [0.
4] er [1.1] the ones here they they grew plants in plastic tunnels [0.5] with 
big heaters at one end [0.3] er increased the C-O-two level and got a grade of 
temperature went down the tunnel so you could look at the effects of 
temperature and C-O-two concentration [0.5] and basically [0.7] in terms of [0.
8] yield and things [0.9] increases due to carbon dioxide [0.3] were cancelled 
out [0.4] or [0.2] doubling of carbon dioxide [0.5] was cancelled out by about 
a two degree temperature increase [0.3] er [0.4] because er [0.4] the 
temperature increase meant the the plant growth was ever quicker [1.2] er [1.4] 
and this was sort of illustrated by [1.0] sort of crop modelling if you like [0.
6] er [0.2] i mean crop models are basically trying to [0.2] people trying to 
predict how crops grow [0.4] and they're based on things like thermal time and 
radiation efficiency [0.6] er [0.5] and [1.5] these are some of the results
they expect for a wheat crop [0.3] this [0.2] crop labelled nineteen-eighty-
one refers to [0.5] typical conditions a [0.5] in in the nineteen-eighties [0.
5] so that might be total dry matter [0.3] of a wheat crop [0.8] er [0.5] over 
time giving you something like [0.8] er twenty tons per hectare so it's a 
pretty good crop [1.6] then bringing those sort of results we've got in [0.4] 
if you double carbon dioxide [0.7] er [0.2] you get a higher rate of 
photosynthesis and get more dry matter [1.0] er [0.6] so that's a doubling of 
carbon dioxide [2.1] but [0.2] you also accelerate if you if you then have a 
three degree increase in temperature [0.8] er you accelerate 
development so you get the dry matter [0.7] er and you get it quicker that 
that all seems fine you getting more dry weight and an in a quicker [0.8] in a 
quicker time [0.7] er [0.6] but that then leaves little time [1.0] for the 
grain [0.6] to fill [0.5] er [0.2] in terms of grain weight [0.6] er [1.5] 
basically what you tend to happen is you accelerate the grain filling process 
[0.6] and you don't get a lot enough time to fill grain so [0.3] in terms of 
grain yield you get relatively difference [0.8] between the conditions here and 
the conditions there [0.5] er [0.6] so this rapid development [0.4] of of of 
cereal crops [0.3] er sort of cancels out [0.7] er [0.3] the er [1.2] the 
effect of s carbon dioxide [0.2] and you don't get much effect upon upon yield 
[0.8] does that seem to make any sense to people or not [4.9] maybe [0.5] ok [0.
5] er [4.0] what what about other crops [0.2] er [1.0] well [0.2] things like 
er [0.6] vegetative crops [0.7] er [0.8] things like sugar beet and potatoes 
where you're not actually growing them for seed for grain [0.7] er [0.6] 
they're not so [0.2] restricted by developments they will [2.2] have yield 
formation over a longer period [0.3] er [0.3] continue growth along that [0.2] 
so [0.8] basically the effects of carbon dioxide doubling there tend to be [0.
5] greater than the effects of negative effects of temperature [0.3] er [0.4] 
so provided you've got water you tend to [0.3] evidence seems to be that you'll 
get an increasing yield [0.9] on on those sort of crops [7.5] okay so [2.1] 
we're starting to get together a picture of how carbon dioxide [0.6] and [0.3] 
temperature [0.5] er inter influence [0.3] yields of crops [1.0] one thing 
that's going to [0.4] obviously differ [0.3] in in climatic change is [0.3] 
distribution of crops [0.7] er [0.9] it's slightly illustrates the point quite 
quite nicely [0.4] er [0.7] this is maize in the U-K [0.3] er [1.0] now we 
don't really grow [0.2] maize for grain [0.6] er [0.5] like they do in France 
[0.7] grain for feeding of animals where you actually [0.3] harvest the mature 
grain [0.7] er because basically the season's really too too short [0.6] er [2.
4] well we grow the maize for silage where we harvest the whole the whole crop 
[0.4] and obviously we grow things for sweetcorn but sweetcorn's not mature 
grain it's an in between [0.4] and [0.5] er [1.3] [cough] around the [0.2] the 
end of [0.4] well eighteen nineteen-eighty-seven nineteen-ninety [0.4] er [0.7] 
in terms of temperature [0.7] the limit for grain maize is pretty well the 
south coast it can be grown in in Fr in [0.3] northern France but not so much 
in the U-K 
[0.7] er [0.9] an increase of [0.2] half a degree in mean temperature [0.5] 
would put the limit up to here [0.2] one-and-a-half here and three degrees 
would take it up in into Scotland [0.6] because temperature's the limiting 
factor [0.6] based upon this thermal time [0.8] er [0.4] silage maize [0.8] 
limit there [0.5] er [2.3] could could move quite appreciably [0.5] er [2.0] 
the other point about here is [0.3] on here are some particularly [0.4] er [1.
3] nineteen-seventy-six was a particularly hot year [0.4] and [0.3] before we 
got into [1.0] the late nineteen-nineties and the warmest years of the 
millennium [0.4] er [0.3] and in that year the limit stop up here already [0.3] 
a cold year nineteen-sixty-two it was down here [0.4] so [2.3] we've already 
experienced individual years some of the fluctuations of the same sort of size 
[0.5] er as things that we're we're getting [0.7] er [0.7] but [0.3] basically 
[3.0] even a sort of one or two degree [0.8] limit a change in temperature [0.
3] will vastly increase the range in which various crops can be grown going to 
be a lot of changes [0.3] in in in crop composition [0.7] and and and into grow 
in different places [3.3] er [2.7] what sort of yields could you get for for 
maize and i've put this in to illustrate one particular point [0.5] er [0.3] 
that [0.7] these are estimated yields of forage maize [0.5] in the U-K [0.6] er 
[0.5] and basically [0.3] the darker areas are the [1.1] highest yielding 
areas at the moment [0.9] er you can't get any yield of maize [0.6] and [0.3] 
this study looked at [0.7] what would you what would happen to maize yields [0.
2] if [0.3] i'm sorry it's off the top of the screen here but [0.2] it's 
increase temperature by two degrees [0.6] and rainfall by [0.2] ten per cent [1.
0] er [0.7] very simple [0.8] er [1.0] adjustment in in [0.4] er [0.7] in 
climate [0.3] do you see that the mean temperature's gone up by two degrees and 
rainfall's increased by ten per cent [0.2] there's no effect of carbon dioxide 
in here [0.4] and [0.6] er [1.4] the yields basically increase [0.4] er [0.2] 
and particularly increase [0.8] in in the midlands and the west of of the 
country [2.5] but [0.4] if you increase 
temperatures by two degrees [1.0] but decrease rainfall by ten per cent [1.4] 
you get a lot of these lighter colours [0.4] er [0.3] and the the increase 
yield is [0.6] is er [0.4] disappeared [1.0] and this is one of the great 
uncertainties really [0.2] is that [1.8] we not really sure what's going to 
happen to rainfall in in in [2.0] the [0.4] in the coming centuries [0.4] and 
[0.3] things like maize et cetera are very sensitive [0.2] to to to rainfall [0.
5] plus or minus ten per cent [0.5] there's almost nothing you get a complete 
change of yield pattern [0.5] er [0.2] between those two conditions [0.4] so [1.
2] got to be very careful about what you read and believe because [2.1] knowing 
what the future rainfall is going to be is very important in terms of [0.6] er 
not only agricultural crops but in terms of natural vegetation as well [2.5] er 
[2.2] okay [0.9] some sources of information [0.2] about er [1.0] climatic 
change and impacts [0.3] and i've stuck this one in here [0.2] er [1.3] 
U-K [0.4] C-I-P United Kingdom [0.3] er [1.6] climate impacts programme [0.4] 
er it's it's quite a substantial [0.4] activity [0.3] er [1.7] funded by DEFRA 
[0.6] er based really at the university of Oxford [0.3] er [0.3] provide a lot 
of information on put up the website a b a bit later on [0.9] er [1.4] one of 
the things they did er and i put this in really for those of interest in some 
ways but it is interesting [0.5] er they commissioned [0.6] a report on [0.3] 
on what's going to happen to gardens in the next [0.3] millennium [0.6] er 
sorry the next hundred years er not only domestic gardens but also [0.3] er [0.
5] you know stately homes and things like that [0.3] and er [1.9] had grow here 
so who're responsible for this this report [0.6] er [0.8] and [0.2] produced a 
few [1.4] fairly [0.2] what i think fairly interesting figures some of us're 
looking back at the climatic records [0.6] er [1.1] this is the central 
England's temperature record [0.8] er [0.9] which we said before er it goes 
back to about seventeen-seventy [0.6] er [0.5] and [0.5] these are the number 
of hot days [0.5] er [0.4] days above [0.4] twenty degrees in a year [0.6] er 
[1.4] and [0.2] you can see that 
there's er a general [0.4] general increase trend this is like a smooth curve 
[1.9] going through here and the colour's just to highlight the areas above and 
below [0.4] er [0.2] this is the nineteen [0.3] er sixty-one to ninety average 
[0.8] er [0.4] so [0.3] over the last few years the number of hot days has 
increased [0.7] er [0.7] and [0.8] these are the number of of cold days [0.4] 
er [1.9] er [4.2] linked in to frost occurrence we saw this before but 
certainly that occurrence is is is much less [0.3] in the last part of this 
century than than back in the previous centuries [0.6] and and those are [0.2] 
things that are relevant to to to garden plants [2.0] the length of the growing 
season [0.4] er [0.9] we talked back in earlier times about [0.6] thermal time 
[0.6] and [0.4] roughly [0.4] er [2.5] growing season is is roughly defined for 
time when temperature [0.4] is above [0.6] er [0.2] is is greater than five 
degrees five degrees [0.8] five degrees centigrade roughly speaking [0.5] so 
this is the number of days in in a year in central England [0.6] er [0.4] that 
the the growing season has been [0.7] er the temperatures have been above five 
degrees [0.4] er [0.2] the average in sixty-one to ninety [0.5] is two-hundred-
and-forty-two days [0.6] er [0.3] for central parts of England [0.6] er [0.3] 
and you can see [1.4] that [0.3] how [1.1] the sixty-one to ninety average [0.
3] year [0.4] er is higher [0.2] than [0.6] the last [0.5] er [0.3] a-hundred-
and-fifty years [0.4] and how [1.4] apart from a little dip [0.6] er [1.4] in 
[0.8] in the sort of seventies 
we've gone up [0.5] er [0.7] with growing seasons increasing in that [0.3] in 
length and that's again [0.5] predicted to continue [3.4] linked with that [0.
5] er [1.7] are some [1.9] some li interesting data actually recorded from 
upper one person's garden in in in Norfolk [0.5] er [0.6] but [0.3] a lady's 
been growing plants er [0.5] in in the same place for sort of forty years and 
has kept detailed records [0.5] of of flowering dates and things [0.4] er [0.2] 
so [0.3] these are flowering dates of things like primrose [0.6] daffodil [0.6] 
et cetera [0.3] er [0.2] and [0.2] just showing [0.9] er [0.2] how [0.2] in 
general [1.0] flowering dates are advanced [0.7] over the last [0.2] fifty 
years [0.5] er [1.2] primrose [0.2] actually flowering first flowering in 
November [0.4] er [0.6] daffodils going from March back into February [0.5] er 
[0.2] and these are the changes per 
[0.2] decade [0.2] so [1.3] there's no doubt that growing seasons and times of 
things are are changing [0.6] er [2.2] and and er as temperatures increase [2.
4] er [2.5] i haven't got [0.2] time today at all to look at [1.0] natural 
vegetation in any great detail at all [0.3] er [0.5] but obviously [0.8] many 
species are temperature dependent [0.6] and [1.5] in general [0.7] most natural 
species will [0.2] probably move [1.5] northwards in in a very general sense [0.
6] er [0.4] until they run out of space [0.2] er [0.4] and and [0.8] can't go 
any further [0.4] er [0.4] and these are again people are are producing models 
of how species distribution [0.4] er be affected by climatic change [0.7] most 
are driven by temperature [0.2] 
but [0.3] some impact of water [0.6] er [0.5] so this this is the sort of 
present distribution of br beech trees in in in the U-K [0.5] er [1.0] the 
Chilterns for examples but restricted to the southern areas [0.5] er [0.3] and 
these are various scenarios [0.5] depending [0.8] what will happen in two-
thousand er or could happen by two-thousand-and-twenty [0.4] er [0.2] depending 
upon the rate of C-O-two emissions [0.4] a relatively low scenario or a high 
scenario [0.4] and by two-thousand-and-fifty [0.8] er [0.5] with the same 
scenarios [0.2] and basically [0.4] er [1.7] the the evidence is that there 
will be a northward movement [0.3] say it's not going to occur to all species 
but that's an example [0.3] of what people are people are doing [3.9] er [2.9] 
okay [0.2] i want to focus down a little bit more [0.3] on on on [0.2] U-K at 
the moment [0.3] and [0.7] you may or may not have [0.4] come across this 
report and i'll show you how to get it on the web [0.2] later on [0.3] er [1.4] 
that [1.2] obviously climatic er change is is a great concern [0.3] and [1.0] 
er [0.9] these people all together the er 
[0.8] U-K climate impact programme DEFRA [0.5] the Tyndall centre is actually 
er [0.5] a centre for climatic change and research which is [0.3] based at at 
[0.3] a few universities particularly East Anglia [0.3] and the met office [0.
4] have been doing work on [0.6] scenarios for the U-K now these may not show 
very clearly [0.3] here but [0.5] er [1.6] er basically what they [0.2] they do 
is [0.2] take [0.3] big global climate models we [0.9] talked about very 
briefly last week [0.8] er which give you the big picture [0.6] of of [0.2] 
climatic change in the future [0.4] and then they sort of [0.8] con scale them 
down to smaller scales [0.7] er [0.6] by various sort of statistical [0.6] 
methods er which we didn't really worry about was that an attempt to give 
more detail [0.4] at at a local scale [0.3] and [0.6] er [1.0] as i say 
there's a there's there's a reference there where you can find the whole [0.3] 
report [0.4] er if you want to [0.4] the U-K [0.6] er [0.3] climates impacts 
programme [0.6] er [0.7] and [1.1] the sort of things that it [2.2] er [0.6] 
says [0.2] the g change you're going to get [0.7] er [0.4] are things like this 
now [0.5] this is [0.2] quite interesting looking at winter [0.5] er [1.1] what 
we've got here are are winters this is this'll be
if you like the mean winter [0.7] and then [0.2] we we have warm winters [0.7] 
and cooler winters [0.4] er [0.2] or wetter winters and dry winters [0.7] and 
[0.5] the black dots are what we've had [0.7] er [0.4] over recent times over 
[0.7] er [0.4] last twenty or thirty years [0.6] er [0.6] we've had some 
winters that are [0.6] er [0.9] sort of drier and colder [0.6] than than the 
average [0.4] er or we have warmer wetter [0.9] winters but not particularly so 
[1.1] the [0.3] the circles [1.0] er sorry the the red symbols [0.3] er are 
what's likely to happen [0.3] by the time you get [0.5] er [0.7] into [0.6] two-
thousand-and-twenties and two-fifties and the eighties [0.7] er [0.2] and but
[0.2] with er [1.1] various bits of s of scatter [0.3] and essentially [1.2] 
the the implications are for what we talked about last week that we're going to 
be having warmer and wetter winters [0.6] er [0.4] and considerably [0.5] 
warmer and wetter [0.5] er [1.0] er [0.7] by the end of the century [2.7] if 
you look at summer [0.5] er [0.6] the points tend to be all cluttered round 
there that we [0.6] tend [1.0] we've had [1.1] dry [0.3] summers [0.2] and 
wetter summers [0.2] but we don't actually have so much variation in 
temperature [0.2] over over the summer as a whole [0.7] er [0.7] but that again 
is is likely to change and all the predictions are [0.5] remember we said last 
week of a decrease in in rainfall in the summer [0.4] and the increase in 
temperature [0.3] so [0.3] the evidence seems to be for the U-K that we are 
certainly moving [0.5] towards [0.5] er [1.1] warmer drier summers [0.4] which 
will have [0.6] obviously effects upon natural vegetation crops water resources 
and things like that [2.4] any any thoughts about that any questions about that 
does
it [4.5] good for going to the beach but then again not so good for [0.6] 
other things [1.7] er [1.8] again i i don't expect you to look at these in in 
in any any detail [0.5] er [1.0] but these are [0.4] the sort of level of 
detail that people are now modelling [0.3] the climatic change of the U-K [0.3] 
you see the U-K is made up of little [0.4] little grids [0.7] er [1.0] and [0.
7] this is looking at winter [0.6] rainfall [0.5] er [0.8] and then summer 
rainfall over here [0.6] er [0.6] and [1.7] this is [0.2] er [1.2] looking at 
what they think is a is a reasonable scenario and given [0.3] the present rate 
of C-O-two emissions and things what's likely to happen [0.4] and [0.2] 
basically [0.3] er [0.7] anything 
[0.5] green or blue means more rainfall [0.9] er [0.6] and [0.5] anything 
yellow down to red brown means less rainfall [0.7] so [0.8] er [2.4] and [0.5] 
sorry what i didn't say [0.6] i can't see here quickly this top line is for [0.
5] sorry for re relatively low emissions and high emissions [0.5] of C-O-two 
and [0.4] you know we may be somewhere in between [0.4] but it this quantifies 
the effects and the important thing is that [0.5] er [0.7] in terms of winter 
rainfall [0.7] it seems that most of the effects are going to be concentrated 
in the in the south and south east 
[1.1] of of of [0.7] of the country [0.5] er [2.2] and [0.5] the same is going 
to be true in in [1.0] summer rainfall [0.7] that the summer rainfalls will 
decrease everywhere [0.5] but [0.5] er [0.4] there's a [0.5] more a tendency of 
bigger effects in in the south [0.7] er [0.9] er [0.2] and particularly as you 
get towards the end of the century [0.6] so [0.3] these are the sort of latest 
predictions that people have got and and [0.5] people are trying to think of 
the implications of of these things for [0.2] for [0.6] for life in the U-K [1.
6] er [2.5] temperature again [0.4] er [1.6] all the colours here are positive 
[0.6] er nought's down here [0.5] er [0.2] going up to f [0.6] four and a half 
degrees five degrees increase in in temperature [0.6] er [1.4] and obviously
[0.8] high emissions have a bigger effect [0.6] er [0.9] but again [0.8] 
there's there's a er [2.4] a a tendency again [0.3] for the for the [0.7] well 
[0.3] for England i suppose and particularly for the south east er [0.4] to 
have the biggest effects [0.5] er [0.5] moderated in in in in in in in in other 
places [4.7] er [1.2] soil moisture content this is this is er [1.7] er [1.5] 
very small you can r read the details on on the web if you want to [0.4] but 
essentially again [0.3] it's 
[0.4] er [0.9] getting drier essentially in in in in in the average soil 
moisture content [2.7] er [0.7] thermal growing season i s showed you figures 
how that've changed over time already [0.6] er [0.9] and [1.4] again we're 
talking about fairly [0.8] long changes [0.5] er big changes er [2.0] that [0.
7] increases [0.5] er [0.9] i mean the lowest colour [0.6] er [1.4] i mean [0.
4] er this is for two-thousand-and-eighty so i suppose it's it is the end of [0.
3] getting towards the end of the century [0.4] er [0.8] but i mean the 
smallest changes here are something like an increase in thirty [0.6] thirty 
thirty-five days [0.6] er under low
emissions [0.7] er [0.8] and er [1.0] under high emissions [0.8] basically 
temperatures being [0.4] probably [1.5] warm enough for [0.5] substantial crop 
growth throughout throughout the year [0.7] so again it's going to have a major 
effect upon upon vegetation and and cropping [2.2] er [2.4] people are doing 
all sorts of different approaches to try to predict the effects of [0.4] of 
climatic change [0.5] er [2.3] one one of the nicest studies that [0.9] i've 
seen recently is is this one from Ireland [0.5] er [0.3] so i thought i'd stick 
it in to give an idea of what people actually do [0.3] it uses the same sort of 
ideas as as before [0.4] er [0.2] a big general circulation model and then [0.
2] coming down to give you more [0.7] local detail [0.7] er [1.0] and it uses 
something called weather 
generators [0.5] er [0.2] the idea [0.2] there is that if you sort of estimate 
the the monthly [1.6] temperatures for instance or the monthly rainfall [0.6] 
you've got an idea of how many [0.7] days it's going to rain [0.8] you can 
generate [0.3] the daily [0.5] artificial daily data if you like to simulate [1.
2] typical [0.2] climate patterns [0.5] quite a bit of research getting into 
that sort of area [0.4] er [0.2] how you take sort of monthly data [0.2] and [0.
9] guess at what the daily data will be so it all adds up together [0.4] if 
that makes makes sense [0.4] er [0.8] because obviously it matters a bit er [1.
4] you know if you if you get [0.7] sixty millimetres of rain a month does that 
come in one storm 
[0.5] er which has [0.8] probably nasty effects and damaging effects or does 
it come in [0.4] in ten [0.8] nice gentle rain days spread over the month and 
things like that [0.2] so there's work going on there [0.6] er [1.2] so [0.7] 
it tries to estimate daily data [0.2] and then [1.0] uses crop models er [0.4] 
these are a set of crop models that are very widely used [0.4] throughout the 
world [0.2] to estimate yields [0.6] er [0.5] so [1.4] what they've done is to 
try to [0.6] 
look at [0.6] patterns of rainfall [0.6] in er in Ireland [0.5] er [1.0] and 
[0.2] they they [0.2] sort of tested it by [1.0] going back to predict the past 
climate if you like [0.6] er [1.3] this isn't real data it's predictions from 
[0.7] a model [0.7] with sort of run [1.0] from from from early on in in in 
time [0.4] er [0.5] and [0.2] don't worry about the details but basically [0.3] 
er [1.0] January [0.2] these examples of January rainfall [0.2] basically 
getting wetter in Ireland the the darker colour [0.2] the the more rainfall [0.
4] 
but summer rainfall [0.5] er again decreasing [0.2] consistent with the U-K [0.
7] er [1.6] but what does that do to [0.4] to crop yield oh that's that's 
temperature sorry [0.3] er [1.5] again these are all positive [0.2] 
temperatures [0.3] er [3.1] er [1.0] but basically [0.9] lighter colours here 
increasing temperatures in in summer and increasing temperatures in [0.7] in [0.
9] in er winter [1.8] but then using that data [0.5] er [0.4] you can basically 
run the crop model to estimate the yields that you'd get 
[0.7] for the crops [0.5] er [0.7] in each of these little squares [0.2] you 
know so each square basically [0.3] has got its own [0.3] climate [0.6] er [0.
2] generated and produces its own estimates in yield [0.6] er [1.1] so this is 
a pattern [0.3] er nineteen-sixty-one to ninety [0.7] and [0.2] basically [0.6] 
these conditions [0.7] er [0.7] given that barley [0.2] is is basically grown 
as a winter crop [0.7] er [1.8] so sown in the autumn and harvested later on in 
in in in the s in [0.4] in [0.2] in the summer [0.4] er 
[0.3] you're actually tending to get increases in yield [0.7] in in in barley 
[0.3] predicted [0.3] er [1.1] in in in Ireland [1.0] potatoes [1.0] without 
irrigation er [0.7] which [0.4] are quite widely grown in Ireland at the moment 
[0.5] er [1.3] the colours get lighter basically as time goes on [0.4] because 
the summer [0.7] water shortage becomes more and more [0.4] er [0.9] important 
[0.3] and and restricts the growth [0.2] 
er of of of [0.2] the yield [0.7] so [0.2] don't worry about the details now 
i've really put it just put it in to show you [0.3] what people are doing how 
people are trying to im [0.2] model predict the impacts [0.6] er [1.8] but to 
my mind it's very crucial that the the the [0.3] the assumptions about rainfall 
are are are good [0.6] and i've still got a big question mark over that [0.4] 
er [0.6] you know you still have to trust the [0.4] the the models or whatever 
[0.4] er [0.3] and they're certainly getting better er they're doing very well 
but [0.4] the results are very sensitive to [0.6] to to to rainfall [2.6] er [3.
5] as i say we we could spend the whole module 
[0.6] looking at the effects of climatic change [0.2] just [0.9] some some 
very general thoughts about the the likely effects upon agriculture generally 
in in in [0.2] U-K whatever [0.8] different crops [0.4] basically being grown 
in different places [0.5] er [0.4] is the obvious way of adapting [0.2] er [1.
5] and er [2.8] er you know that in some ways may actually give us more 
diversity and more things that we can actually grow [0.9] there's probably 
going to be more autumn sown crops because the winter conditions are going to 
be warmer different 
weeds likely to to be there [0.9] among the growing seasons [0.5] and summer 
water supply may well be a problem [0.2] er [0.3] there's going to be a lot of 
work about efficient irrigation and things to to make use of water resources [0.
7] er [2.0] so [0.2] er [1.0] and in these sort of impact studies you can read 
much more about these these particular details [1.4] er [2.4] rainfall [0.4] 
well [1.4] the predictions all seem to be reduced summer rainfall [0.6] er [0.
2] will effect water supply [0.5] and [0.3] warmer temperatures will really 
increased demand [0.6] and i know that the [0.7] er [0.2] water companies and 
and people are very concerned about [0.3] possible demand in in in [1.0] two-
thousand-and-fifty whatever [0.4] er [0.7] and need in increased 
reservoir capacity [0.2] er to keep the the the [0.3] winter [0.7] water [0.5] 
er available [0.7] er [1.3] a possible adverse effect if water flows in rivers 
in the summer are cut down and they adversely effect quality [0.4] pollutants 
don't get so [0.6] dilu diluted and things like that in in effect quality [0.5] 
er [0.5] and fairly obviously [0.5] heavier more intense winter rainfall can [0.
4] give increased flooding et cetera 
[0.3] and there's evidence over the Europe that these things have become more 
frequent [0.4] in in in in time [2.1] er [1.3] i'm not going to say much about 
sea-level rise er [1.0] but i [0.2] put here [0.4] figures from [0.6] the er [0.
7] the U U-K [0.4] climatic impact re report [0.6] er [0.5] and [1.4] it it's 
not quite a straightforward picture er we talked about sea-level rise [0.4] er 
[0.2] you know because of the thermal expansion of the ocean and things like 
that [0.5] er [0.2] we also have to bear in mind [0.4] er [0.3] that land's 
also rising as well [0.6] er [0.7] in well in in in in
in parts of the U-K [0.3] er [0.6] there're [0.7] geological movements [0.3] 
er [0.5] here in in in millimetres per year [0.5] er [0.2] so Scotland's going 
up [1.0] very gently [0.4] er [0.2] and other parts are going down et cetera [0.
5] er [0.6] and [1.4] you have to take that into account when you look at the 
effects on on on actual [0.2] practical sea-level rises [0.5] so [0.4] these 
are the sea-level rises that are being predicted for the various areas [0.6] of 
the U-K [0.4] er [2.3] but again [0.9] er [1.3] you know if we if we take er [1.
0] where shall we take take eastern England which is 
[0.4] somewhere that people are often very concerned about [0.2] that's 
actually sort of [0.5] sinking down a bit [0.4] but we've we've still got a big 
range between twenty-two [0.4] centimetres [0.7] er [0.2] and eighty 
centimetres depending upon the different [0.3] emission scenarios [0.6] er [1.
6] so again a great cause for concern [0.6] er [1.1] and this this is very much 
a lower limit of i think [0.3] er of what [0.4] is likely to happen [0.5] er [0.
3] so again [1.0] people looking at [0.2] you know [0.9] precautions wh [1.0] 
can't spell coastal can i [1.0] sorry [0.2] deliberate mistake [1.0] er 
increased coastal flooding coastal erosion [0.8] and things like that and 
things to be concerned about [4.8] right [0.5] that was really concentrating on 
the U-K [0.4] er [0.8] just to finish up [1.1] a couple of slides about er 
world 
production [0.8] er [1.5] this is looking at [0.3] er [1.3] U-K production [0.
2] sorry [1.0] cereal production in the world [0.5] under different [0.3] er [0.
7] climatic change models [0.4] er [0.2] you needn't worry about these these 
are three different models one one's the U-K model and whatever [0.4] er [1.1] 
because the [0.2] the models don't necessarily agree [0.3] but [0.6] the 
question is 
do you get consistency on on on on the output [0.2] et cetera [0.5] and [0.9] 
er [0.8] what this graph is is basically looking at is [1.0] developed 
countries [0.3] er [0.3] developing countries and and the world total [0.6] and 
[2.5] overall [0.5] er [0.3] in terms of cereal production [0.4] the climatic 
effects only [0.7] which are are basically temperature and rainfall [1.9] the 
the estimates seem to be that [1.7] total developed world [0.7] cereal 
production should go down [0.6] but [1.4] i'm sorry i if you can't read the 
detail but er [1.2] the climate effects are are rainfall er and temperature [0.
6] the the 
effects of carbon dioxide [1.0] increase will probably [0.6] turn that into 
into a positive effect [0.7] er [0.8] so [1.2] increased temperature reducing 
yield [0.2] but the carbon dioxide effects [0.6] generally balancing that 
although [1.0] depending on which climate scenario you you you pick up [0.7] er 
[0.3] you may have a a negative effect or positive effect [0.5] er [0.5] but 
then [1.7] there are various 
things that we can do [0.5] er [1.3] this is a dash er called adaptation level 
one [0.3] which are things like [0.4] er [0.5] changing the crop variety 
changing the planting date [0.6] er [1.2] er and the amount of water applied 
for a [0.3] level a areas already irrigated [0.7] er [0.7] so we can do some 
things to [0.3] to [0.5] maintain cereal supplies [0.5] er [1.3] or we can [1.
6] grow [0.5] go on to further adaptation by growing different different varie 
different crops [0.4] 
you know maybe growing [0.5] er [1.1] well say more maize instead of instead 
of wheat and things like that [0.5] er and other things [1.2] but i suppose the 
the basic picture to get from from here is that [0.5] er [2.3] that in theory 
the developed world can probably [0.5] maintain its food supplies its cereal 
supplies [0.5] by [0.2] a [0.3] adapting changing varieties moving things 
around [0.5] er [0.6] that's much less harder to do or much harder to do in 
developing countries [0.3] where the scope for [0.3] 
adaptation is less [0.6] er [0.3] adaptation may reduce [0.3] things but the 
[0.3] the climatic effects [0.2] particularly in the tropics [0.6] would seem 
to be [0.2] generally fairly negative [0.4] and that's a [0.5] a position that 
we need to [0.6] need to think about [0.8] er [0.7] in terms of world [0.2] 
total [0.7] well maybe we can [0.3] keep [0.3] food supplies [1.1] together [0.
2] er [0.3] at er [0.8] the same sort of level [0.4] er [1.5] but [0.2] er [0.
2] you know there's there's a tale of two two worlds there if you like and er 
[0.7] the world's got to be able to 
come to terms with this particular problem in in in the near future [2.7] er 
[2.2] again [0.5] a couple of international studies to show that people are 
looking at these things around the world [0.5] er [1.7] the the current 
distribution of beech trees in in in north America [0.4] er [0.7] and [0.2] how 
that's likely to change under different [0.2] predictions of of climatic change 
in the next [0.5] er [1.6] er fifty years or so [0.5] er [0.7] simple things 
like [0.9] again i've just picked out one individual crop [0.2] this is coffee 
[0.4] er [1.4] quite an important crop in in parts of Uganda [0.7] er [0.9] 
coffee doesn't really like warm temperatures [0.5] er [1.8] there's a lot of 
material out there that that you can read [0.4] er you don't really need to 
read for [1.4] for boring things
like the exams in this course and things like that [0.5] er [0.5] you know the 
hand outs and some of the particular things i'll i'll talk about exams a bit 
later on [0.4] er [0.4] but [0.3] these are some of the the important sites for 
climatic change [0.5] er [0.8] the grid what we we we've referenced before [0.
5] er [0.5] which is the United Nations environment programme [0.6] er [0.5] 
that one we had up [0.2] er [0.4] we had sort of climatic graphics with last 
week [0.5] climatic research East Anglia is is is quite an important one [0.6] 
met office [0.2] er [0.5] U-K [0.5] World Meteorological Organization in in 
Switzerland [1.0] er is W-M-O [0.6] er [0.3] this is the United Kingdom [0.5] 
er [0.5] climatic impacts programme [0.9] the Tyndall centre 
[0.3] er [0.3] again is set up for for mainly for U-K [0.2] climate change [0.
6] and again [0.2] DEFRA has has got an important web site now for for climatic 
change information [0.8] er [1.2] so i hope i sort of took your interest and [0.
9] go away and have a look at some of these things because it really is a [0.5] 
a substantial problem we all [0.2] challenge shall we say that's going to [0.7] 
affect [1.1] you in your lives much more than me in [0.7] in respect to mine i 
suppose [0.5] er [2.0] okay any any thoughts or questions or [3.5] cameras are 
very good at shutting people off [3.3] you pessimistic about the future 
optimistic about the future or what [2.6] 
sm1360: we die [0.7] 
nm1359: sorry [3.3] yeah there's there's there's a lot of uncertainties there 
but but the science is is really focusing er it's er [0.5] it is a major major 
concern area [1.6] er and i i hope [0.3] what you can see is some of the sort 
of basic principles that we looked at early on in the course the sort of energy 
and exchange [0.7] and [0.4] er net radiation [1.0] things like the 
microclimate modification radiation is that they've all got a part in 
understanding and predicting what's going on [0.4] and i think that's quite 
quite important [3.9] okay er [1.7] well er [1.2] any any other questions on 
this or not [1.2] yeah [0.3] 
sm1361: er in page six er this one here about the [0.3] natural variation in 
the [0.3] er red one report to come winter and summer [0.2] 
nm1359: yeah [0.4] 
sm1361: er y there's some where there all dots seem to be all together of what 
[0.2] the er [0.5] natural ones [0.3] 
nm1359: er yeah i'm sorry you i should have [0.6] warned you that [0.2] 
sm1361: i don't know how [0.6] i i i can see how er [0.4] the er [1.1] er [0.3] 
nm1359: yeah 
sm1361: i can see how the they could they could manage to get the the red ones 
what to come on the left hand side by looking at the black ones but i don't see 
how [0.3] to get the black ones all come together they might manage to get 
somewhere [1.3] 
nm1359: so er are you do you mean do you mean these ones or [0.2] 
sm1361: other side [0.3] 
nm1359: so this one 
sm1361: looks like [0.2] the ones which they've actually got [0.2] er 
nm1359: yeah 
sm1361: what to [0.2] i i don't see how they got the er [0.3] ones that are all 
spread out [1.2] 
nm1359: scenarios for what will happen in in two-thousand-and-twenty [1.0] and 
[0.5] what it's basically saying is that [1.7] that temperatures temperatures 
are going to be warmer and summers are going to be dryer [2.3] er [1.6] er i'm 
not answering the question there i think but [0.5] er [1.0] so that's two-
thousand-and-twenty and then [0.5] 
two-thousand-and-fifty we'd might be down here two-thousand-and-eighty we're 
going to be down here [0.6] er [0.6] so the these are different estimates from 
different different sort of scenarios so there's variability [0.9] er [1.0] 
what he's really saying is that [1.6] by two-thousand-and-twenty we're probably 
going to be experiencing summers that [0.3] we haven't experienced before [1.0] 
sm1361: well it [0.9] 
nm1359: er [0.3] whereas here there is some overlap [0.6] er [0.3] so [0.4] 
some of the winters [0.2] er 
[0.4] in in two-thousand-and-twenty won't be that different from winters we've
had [1.1] in recent times [1.0] er [0.2] you know we we've had [0.2] things of 
this [0.2] amount of warmth and this amount of of of rainfall [1.0] er [1.6] 
it's [0.3] later on [0.2] two-thousand-and-fifty when we're going to get into 
[0.6] er [0.2] even warmer and wetter [2.0] er conditions [0.2] er [0.6] is 
that a sort of answer 
sm1361: think so 
nm1359: yeah [1.4]